Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Huancayo: match statistics

Comerciantes Unidos have a clear home advantage: they win 42% of their home matches and lose only 17%, while Sport Huancayo suffer defeat in 69% of their away games and win just 15%. The hosts concede an average of 0.92 goals per match at home and keep a clean sheet in 42% of their appearances, whereas the visitors allow opponents to score 2.23 goals away from home. In attack, Comerciantes create more, averaging 15.17 shots and recording an xG of 1.55, compared with Huancayo’s 10.38 shots and xG of 1.13. The teams’ last five matches produced identical records of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, but the hosts scored 10 goals during this period compared with the visitors’ 7. Sport Huancayo may benefit from their higher 12% shot conversion rate, but their poor away defensive record and significantly worse away goal difference (-13) support a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as the seasonal BTTS rate stands at 67% for Comerciantes Unidos and as high as 77% for Sport Huancayo, compared with the league average of 57%. In their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, while their average goal figures were 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded for the hosts, and 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded for the visitors. The home side create a high volume of chances, with an average xG of 2.16 and 6.0 shots on target, while the visitors concede an average of 2.23 goals per match. Sport Huancayo have a lower seasonal xG of 1.13, but this increased to 2.30 across their last five matches, while Comerciantes Unidos allowed opponents an xG of 1.42 during this period. In addition, neither side keeps clean sheets consistently, with clean-sheet rates of just 17% for the hosts and 15% for the visitors. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the most likely outcome.

Comerciantes Unidos create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.16 xG and 6.0 shots on target per match, while Sport Huancayo concede as many as 2.23 goals away from home and allow 1.56 xG. The 1.5-goal line has been exceeded in 92% of both teams’ matches this season, providing an exceptionally consistent signal for at least two goals. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.6 total goals, while the visitors’ games averaged 3.2 goals, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 80% and 60% of those matches respectively. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of matches, while the hosts have scored at least once in 83% of their outings, making the safer Over 1.5 the strongest angle. The projected total of 3.00 goals also points to genuine potential for Over 2.5, but the 1.5 line remains clearly the most likely selection.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Comerciantes Unidos victory. The hosts were level at the break in 7 of their 12 home matches, or 58% of the time, while conceding just 0.33 goals before half-time. Their advantage should grow after the interval: they average 0.92 goals in second halves, whereas Sport Huancayo concede as many as 1.23 goals in that period away from home. Across the full match, Comerciantes Unidos have significantly stronger attacking metrics, with an xG of 2.16 compared with their opponents’ 1.13, and an average of 21.67 shots per match versus Sport Huancayo’s 10.38. The visitors have lost 69% of their away matches and conceded an average of 2.23 goals in those games, so a level start most logically leads to a home victory in the latter stages.