Concarneau vs Orléans: match statistics

Concarneau sit 7th, while Orléans are 11th, but the available season data on home and away performance do not support a clear home advantage. In their last five matches, Concarneau have scored and conceded 4 goals, recording as many as 3 draws, which points to a highly balanced results profile. Orléans have scored more during this period, finding the net 6 times, but have also conceded 6 goals, while their record of 2 wins and 2 defeats indicates greater volatility. The visitors have collected slightly more points per game across their last five appearances, 1.4 compared with 1.2, but their less secure defense limits their chances of an away win. A draw in a low-scoring match appears the most likely outcome, with 1:1 a realistic scenario.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Orléans recorded both teams scoring in only 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with 40% for Concarneau. During this period, Concarneau scored and conceded just 0.8 goals per match, suggesting games with a limited number of chances. The hosts also have a low average xG against of 0.78, while Orléans created 1.78 xG but scored only 1.2 goals per match in reality. The visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals, but Concarneau’s defense allowed just 4 goals across five matches. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team will fail to score.

The available data from the last five matches point to a cautious profile for Concarneau: the team scored and conceded 0.8 goals per game. Orléans recorded higher figures, with 1.2 goals scored and conceded, but matches involving both teams exceeded 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases. The quality of chances created projects 1.14 goals for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors, as Orléans’ xG stands at 1.78, while Concarneau allow opponents just 0.78 xG. With a projected total of 2.42 goals, a scenario involving at least four goals would require a clear departure from recent results, especially since Concarneau conceded only 4 goals in five matches. The strongest edge is therefore on Under 3.5 goals, supported by a 79% probability.

The strongest signal is a cautious first half: Concarneau were level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, while Orléans recorded a draw at the break in 60%. Both teams averaged only 0.2 and 0.4 goals respectively before half-time, while the combined average number of goals in this period was 0.6 for both sides. Concarneau drew 3 of their last 5 matches, and their games produced just 1.6 goals on average, which supports a scenario without a clear outcome. Orléans have been slightly more effective overall in the recent period, averaging 1.2 goals scored compared with the hosts’ 0.8, but they also concede 1.2 goals per match. After the break, the teams most often avoided losing their respective halves, making a half-time draw and a full-time draw the most likely single HT/FT combination: X/X.