Concarneau vs Paris 13 Atletico: match statistics

Concarneau holds a clear advantage in creating quality chances at home: home xG averages 1.48 versus 0.96 xG generated by Paris 13 on the road, and the hosts average 13.71 shots per match (4.86 on target) compared to 7 shots (2.14 on target) for the visitors. Consequently Concarneau scores 1.07 goals per home match on average, while Paris 13 scores only 0.71 goals per away match — despite the visitors’ higher shot conversion rate (10% vs 8%), their lower volume of chances limits the real threat. Defensively the hosts concede 1.14 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 36% of games, whereas Paris 13 concedes 1.43 goals per away match and records a clean sheet in only 21% of fixtures; additionally Paris 13 have lost 57% of away matches with just 14% wins. In the last 5 matches Concarneau have scored 4 goals and average 1.0 point per match, while Paris 13 have only 2 goals and 0.8 points per match, therefore I forecast a home win with probability 60%, a draw 25% and 15% for the away win.

I back No BTTS as the primary pick. Paris 13 Atletico have significant offensive issues away: 0.71 goals per game on the season and only 0.4 goals in the last 5 (2 goals in 5). Concarneau creates more chances (10.07 shots, 3.93 on target and xG 1.32 at home) and should score, but they also concede frequently — 1.27 goals per home game and 8 conceded in the last 5 (1.6 per game). Seasonal BTTS rates are similar (47% of Concarneau’s home matches and 50% for Paris), yet in the last 5 Concarneau had BTTS in 60% of games while Paris only 20%, which favors a No Goal/No BTTS scenario. Paris fail to score in 36% of away matches, and Concarneau fail to score in 27% of home matches; despite Paris’s away xG of 0.96, recent conversion is poor. Based on these figures I estimate BTTS at 35% and No BTTS at 65%, therefore I tip 'No'.

The combined xG for both teams is 1.32 + 0.96 = 2.28 (in the last 5 matches 1.45 + 1.10 = 2.55), suggesting roughly 2.3 expected goals. Concarneau averages 1.0 goal on 3.93 shots on target, while Paris 13 Atletico has 0.71 goals and 2.14 shots on target, so I project 1.35 goals for the home side and 0.95 for the visitors. Both teams have over 57% of matches with more than 1.5 goals (Concarneau 60%, Paris 13 57%), which strongly supports the 1.5 line (Over). The 2.5 line is more balanced: season Over2.5 rates are 47% (Concarneau) and 36% (Paris 13), therefore I estimate Over2.5 at about 44% (Under 56%), while Over3.5 is unlikely (seasonally 27% and 14%). I recommend playing Over 1.5 with expected goals 1.35–0.95 (total 2.30).

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw — the hosts were level at the break in 7 cases (47%) and the visitors in 6 cases (43%), with average first-half goals of 0.33 for Concarneau and 0.14 for Paris 13. After the break the hosts show the advantage: xG 1.32 versus 0.96, more shots 10.07 vs 7.0 and more shots on target 3.93 vs 2.14, which translates into a higher home points-per-game average 1.33 versus 0.71 and a higher win rate 33% vs 14%. Additionally, Concarneau scores more often after the break (3 goals in minutes 46–60 and 5 in 76–90) compared with 1 and 4 for the visitors, and they keep a clean sheet at home in 40% of matches vs 21% for the visitors, so they more frequently take the lead in the second half from a half-time draw. Therefore the most probable scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for the hosts (X/1) — I assign it a 21% probability, followed by X/X at 19% and 1/1 at 14%.