Concarneau vs Rouen: match statistics

The favorite is Rouen: they sit 3rd in the table versus Concarneau’s 12th and have better recent form — in their last five matches Rouen recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (averaging 1.0 point per game), while Concarneau have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0.2 points per game). Offensively Rouen score on average 1.46 goals away and have 6 goals in their last 5 matches, whereas Concarneau at home average 1.15 goals per game and only 3 goals in their last five; the visitors’ shot conversion rate is about 14% versus 8% for the hosts. Concarneau attempt more shots (13.62 per game and 5.08 on target) than Rouen (10.38 and 3.77 on target), but a high share of matches without scoring for the hosts (38% vs 8% for the visitors) and lower conversion indicate a finishing problem. Defensively Concarneau concede 1.23 goals at home with an average opponent xG of 0.87 (opponents are outperforming their xG), while Rouen concede 1.08 goals away with an opponent xG of 1.32 (the visitors defend more efficiently than xG suggests). Considering table position, season goal difference — Rouen 37 scored and 24 conceded versus Concarneau 28 scored and 34 conceded — together with higher efficiency and a low share of matches without a goal, I tip an away victory.

The "BTTS - Yes" scenario looks more likely: Concarneau has a seasonal home BTTS rate of 50% while Rouen have 77% on the road, with these figures at 60% and 80% over the last 5 matches. Rouen average 1.46 goals per game this season and 1.2 in the last 5, whereas Concarneau have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five (11 goals total) and scored only 3. xG data support this: season xG per match is 1.44 for Concarneau and 1.31 for Rouen, and in the last 5 Rouen have xG_for 1.46 versus Concarneau xG_against 1.31, indicating genuine goalscoring opportunities. Although Concarneau have 50% clean sheet expected at home this season, that advantage is weakened by poor defensive form (11 goals conceded in the last 5) and Rouen’s higher finishing (37 goals this season). Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

The xG estimate yields 1.38 expected goals for Concarneau (attacking xG 1.44 vs Rouen’s defensive xG 1.32) and 1.15 for Rouen (attacking xG 1.31 vs Concarneau’s defensive xG 0.99), totaling 2.53. Since 2.53 is above the league average of 2.41, a Poisson projection indicates roughly 72% for Over 1.5 goals, 46% for Over 2.5 goals and 25% for Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal data confirm a moderate inclination toward goals: Rouen have 85% of matches Over 1.5 and 77% BTTS, while Concarneau—despite 50% clean sheets at home in the last 5 matches—have conceded 11 goals (2.2 average). Given the low seasonal percentages for Over 3.5 (14% for hosts, 23% for away teams) and a Poisson-derived ~25% probability of 4+ goals, the strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Concarneau led at the break in 5 of 14 home matches (36%), it was level in 8 of 14 (57%), and Rouen led at the break in 4 of 13 away matches (31%) with 7 of 13 draws (54%), so I estimate a half-time draw at ~55%. For the full-time result, seasonally the hosts hold a slight advantage: 50% home wins versus 38% for Rouen, with average xG 1.44 for Concarneau against 1.31 for Rouen and average goals conceded 0.99 vs 1.32, suggesting a better overall balance for the home side. However, Concarneau’s recent form weighs against them (last 5: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) while Rouen’s last 5 are 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses; in their last 5 matches Rouen score on average 0.8 second-half goals versus 0.2 for Concarneau, increasing their chance of a turnaround after the break. Taking into account the high proportion of half-time draws (~55%), the seasonal xG advantage and higher home win rate, but also Concarneau’s poor form, the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), therefore X/1 is my selection.