Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU: match statistics

Connah's Quay are in slightly better current form, having collected 10 points from their last five matches and won 3 times, while Cardiff MU have amassed 8 points and drawn twice. The hosts are particularly dangerous at home, averaging 2.75 goals per match, 16.5 shots and an xG of 1.89, compared with Cardiff MU's 2.00 goals, 12.75 shots and xG of 1.65 away from home. However, the visitors' away defensive record looks solid, as they concede just 0.50 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested game. Connah's Quay average 62% possession, while Cardiff MU average 53%, so greater initiative from the home side and a higher number of chances created can be expected. The superior chance quality and home advantage point towards a narrow Connah's Quay victory, although the visitors' strong defensive organization limits the extent to which the hosts should be favoured.

Connah's Quay score an average of 2.75 goals at home but concede 2.00, while Cardiff MU score 2.00 goals per away match. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of their games, which clearly strengthens the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Both teams have been effective in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 and 2.2 goals respectively, while Cardiff MU have produced a high 1.87 xG per match. The case for BTTS - Yes is further supported by the visitors’ defensive form, as they have allowed opponents an average of 1.6 goals and 1.69 xG during this run. However, the signal is not particularly strong, as Cardiff MU have kept clean sheets in 50% of the season overall and their season BTTS rate stands at just 25%; therefore, the edge for the “Yes” option remains moderate.

Connah's Quay play in high-scoring games: they average 2.75 goals per match across the season, and every one of their games has gone Over 1.5 goals. Cardiff MU average 2.00 goals, improving to 2.20 over their last five matches, with an average xG of 1.87. The hosts create an average of 1.91 xG and register 7.5 shots on target per match, while their defense allows opponents 2.00 xG, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring. The main constraint for higher goal lines is Cardiff MU's defense, which concedes just 0.50 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of games; therefore, Over 2.5 goals offers only a moderate edge. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts have seen this line land in 100% of their matches, while Cardiff MU have surpassed it in 75% of their appearances.

Connah's Quay have a clear first-half profile: they led at the break in 3 of their 4 matches this season (75%), and in 80% of their last five games, without trailing at half-time in any of them. The hosts average 1.25 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded before the break, while Cardiff MU score 0.75 goals in this phase and went into half-time behind in 40% of their last five matches. The hosts' creative advantage is also reflected in their average xG, 1.91 compared with 1.65, as well as in shots on target: 7.5 to 5.5 per game. Cardiff MU have nevertheless defended solidly throughout the season, conceding just 0.5 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games, which is why some scenarios allow for a turnaround or a draw after the interval. The strongest outcome remains Connah's Quay leading at half-time and holding on to win, supported by the hosts' superior recent form: 60% wins and an average of 2.0 points per game across their last five appearances.