Connah's Quay vs Trefelin: match statistics

Connah's Quay have a clear offensive edge at home, averaging 1.49 xG and 3 shots on target per match, while Trefelin produce only 0.55 xG and 1 shot on target away from home. The visitors are yet to score in their two league matches and have failed to find the net in every away game, which significantly limits their chances despite averaging 60% possession. The hosts also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 2 goals at home from opponents generating 1.28 xG, so a Trefelin goal cannot be ruled out. The last five matches slightly favor the visitors in terms of results, as they have won 3 times and scored 19 goals, but their current away data is considerably weaker. The superior quality of chances created and home advantage point to a moderate probability of a Connah's Quay victory.

The latest form clearly supports goals from both sides: Connah's Quay recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 20% for Trefelin, while both teams conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game during this period. The hosts have recently scored an average of 1.4 goals, whereas Trefelin have managed as many as 3.8, significantly increasing the likelihood that the visitors will exploit their opponents’ defensive weaknesses. Connah's Quay allowed opponents an xG of 1.36, while Trefelin generated a high xG of 2.06, making a goal for the visitors very likely. The hosts, in turn, produced an xG of 1.55 against the 1.20 xG that Trefelin conceded on average, giving them solid grounds to respond with a goal. Although data from the very small season sample shows 0% BTTS for both teams, their current attacking and defensive form points more strongly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Connah's Quay’s last five matches produced an average of 2.8 goals, with the team scoring 1.4 and conceding the same number per game. Trefelin offer significantly greater attacking potential, averaging 3.8 goals across their last five appearances, with 2.06 xG per match. The hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals during this period, while Trefelin also allowed 1.4, which supports going over the low two-goal line. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Connah's Quay’s last five matches and in 80% of Trefelin’s games, while the league average stands at a high 3.13 goals. However, the strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of the visitors’ scoring form and a projected total of 3.15 goals gives it a clearly higher probability.

Trefelin are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game, while Connah's Quay have won only once, averaging 1.4 goals per match. The visitors have led at the break in 60% of their last five games, while the hosts have conceded before half-time an average of 0.6 times and were trailing after 45 minutes in 20% of those appearances. Trefelin’s advantage is even more pronounced after the break, when they score an average of 2.2 goals per match, concede none, and win the second half in 60% of cases. Connah's Quay score just 0.4 goals in second halves and have failed to win any of their last five, reinforcing the scenario of a HT/FT outcome of 2/2. Although the full-season data are based on a very small sample, both teams have lost their matches so far, with the hosts’ goal difference standing at 0:4 compared with 0:2 for the visitors, which provides further evidence against a turnaround.