Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: match statistics
Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Connecticut United played against Carolina Core in MLS Next Pro (United States). The game was played on July 5, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Connecticut United has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Carolina Core has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Connecticut United scores 1.67 goals per game and allows 1.87. Carolina Core scores 1.18 and allows 1.65. Games in this league average 3.24 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 73% of Connecticut United's games and 65% of Carolina Core's. The Over 2.5 rates are 80% and 59%, compared with league averages of 61% for BTTS and 65% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Connecticut United has the higher season xG average, 1.76 to 1.42 per game. Connecticut United takes 14.1 shots per game, while Carolina Core takes 12.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Connecticut United leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.73 goals per game after halftime. Carolina Core leads at halftime in 24% and scores 0.76 after halftime.
When the teams score
Connecticut United's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Carolina Core, it is minutes 46-60 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
MLS Next Pro games average 3.24 goals. Both teams score in 61% of games, and 65% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connecticut United creates more chances: on average 13.5 shots and 5.83 on target per home match versus Carolina Core's 10.11 shots and 3.44 on target away, and their average xG is 1.68 vs. the visitors' 1.24, indicating higher-quality opportunities. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 12 goals while the guests scored only 7, with both teams averaging 1.4 points per game in that period; Carolina also has not won any away match this season (0% wins). Defensively Connecticut fares better in expected threat — average xG against 1.21 at home versus 1.78 for the away side, and actual goals conceded are 1.83 vs. 2.00 per match. The visitors fail to score in 44% of away games compared to 33% of matches without a goal for the hosts, and Carolina's away goal difference is -10 versus the hosts' -4, so the hosts' main advantages are volume of chances, higher xG and a more resilient defense. Despite a high loss rate for both sides (67%), creation metrics and xG favor a Connecticut United win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS - Yes is favored by the data: Connecticut United posts BTTS at 75% for the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, vs. a league average BTTS of 62%. Carolina Core has a season BTTS of 56% (last 5 matches 40%), but concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game this season compared to Connecticut’s 1.25, which raises the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG and shooting metrics support goal probability: Connecticut generates xG 1.63 and averages 14.13 shots with 4.75 on target; Carolina records xG 1.24 and 10.11 shots with 3.44 on target, while Carolina concedes xG against of 1.78. Additionally, only 25% of Connecticut’s matches and 22% of Carolina’s matches end in a clean sheet, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 50% (home) and 67% (away) respectively, with the combined Over2.5 + BTTS occurring at 50% and 56%. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at roughly 70% vs 30% and recommend "BTTS - Yes" as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects approximately 1.70 expected goals for Connecticut United (xG_for 1.63 vs. xG_against opponents 1.78 → average ≈1.70) and 1.44 for Carolina Core (xG_for 1.24 vs. xG_against hosts 1.63 → ≈1.44), yielding a combined ~3.14 goals. With that total xG, a Poisson model estimates ~82% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~61% for Over 2.5 goals and ~38% for Over 3.5 goals, strongly favoring the over market. Match data confirm this direction: the home side averages 1.5 goals this season and have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game) with 100% of those five games exceeding 2.5 goals, while the visitors concede 2.0 goals on average and have 67% of their season matches finishing Over 2.5. The home attack is more active (14.13 shots per match, 11% conversion vs. 10.11 and 9% for the away team) and home matches have seen Both Teams To Score in 75% of cases (away side in 56%), increasing the likelihood of additional goals. Based on the combined xG of 3.14, shot-volume advantage and recent form, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (selection: Over, line 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A typical scenario is 1/1 (home team leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), because the home side led at the break in 3 of 8 matches (38%) and have a 38% home win rate, while the away team has no wins (0%). The home team scores an average of 1.5 goals per match versus 0.89 for the visitors, and the home xG is 1.63 versus 1.24 for the away side, confirming offensive superiority and more chances (14.13 shots vs 10.11, 4.75 shots on target vs 3.44). In the first half the home team averages 0.63 goals while the away team only 0.22; additionally, 100% of home matches had at least one goal before the break, which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. In the second half the home side also dominates—averaging 0.88 goals and registering 50% wins in second halves versus 11% for the away team—so maintaining or extending the lead after Half-Time is very likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Connecticut United | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connecticut United is 42% better for: goals scored per game.
1.67 goals / game - Connecticut United · 1.18 goals / game - Carolina Core
Carolina Core is 13% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.87 goals / game - Connecticut United · 1.65 goals / game - Carolina Core
Connecticut United scores in 80% of games (12 of 15 meczów), while Carolina Core keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 meczów).
Carolina Core scores in 76% of games (13 of 17 meczów), while Connecticut United keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 15 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connecticut United
Over / Under - Carolina Core
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connecticut United is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / game - Connecticut United · 1 pts / game - Carolina Core
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connecticut United - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Carolina Core - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 18%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Connecticut United
Carolina Core
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Connecticut United | Liga | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.53 | 3.24 | ▼ 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 65% | ▼ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 22% | ▲ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 84% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
FAQ
What was the result of Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Connecticut United 3:1 Carolina Core. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
Connecticut United score 1.67 goals per game on average and Carolina Core 1.18. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Connecticut United's matches and 65% of Carolina Core's.
What form are Connecticut United and Carolina Core in?
Over the last 5 games Connecticut United have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Carolina Core 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.