Córdoba vs Granada CF: match statistics

I forecast a home win because Córdoba has a clear advantage in form and chance creation. In the last 5 matches Córdoba has won 5 times, scoring 11 and conceding 5, while Granada in their last 5 have a record of 2 wins and 3 losses with 7 scored and 11 conceded. Statistically Córdoba at home averages 17.22 shots and 5.39 on target, has 60% possession and xG 1.87, whereas Granada away records 10.68 shots, 3.42 on target, 48% possession and xG 1.20. Defensively they are similar (Córdoba concedes 1.39 goals per home game vs 1.42 for Granada away), but Granada fails to score more often (26% blanks vs 17% for Córdoba), which further favors the hosts. I assess probabilities at 68% for Córdoba, 20% for a draw and 12% for Granada.

The 'yes' scenario (both teams to score) is more likely. Cordoba has a seasonal BTTS rate of 58% versus Granada's 47% and a league average of 55%, providing a base above 50%. The signal from the last 5 matches is even stronger: Cordoba has BTTS 80% and averages 2.2 goals scored with 1.0 conceded, while Granada has BTTS 60%, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.2, so both sides demonstrate the ability to score and concede. xG and shooting stats support this picture: Cordoba xG 1.48 vs xG against Granada 1.43, Granada xG 1.20 vs xG against Cordoba 1.19, and SOT 4.32 to 3.42 shows concrete goal-scoring opportunities. Based on this I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% versus 30% for No Goal, therefore the best pick is 'BTTS - Yes'.

xG suggests 1.46 goals for Córdoba (1.48 xG created by Córdoba vs 1.43 xG conceded by Granada) and 1.20 for Granada (1.20 xG created by Granada vs 1.19 xG conceded by Córdoba), totaling 2.66 expected goals. Seasonally, over 1.5 goals occurred in 63% of Córdoba’s matches and 68% of Granada’s matches, yielding a baseline of ~65% probability for Over 1.5. In the last 5 fixtures Córdoba averaged 2.2 goals scored (11 goals in 5 matches), while Granada conceded an average of 2.2 goals (11 conceded in 5); the Over 2.5 rate in the last 5 is 80% for Córdoba and 60% for Granada. Córdoba averages 13.84 shots and 4.32 on target per match, Granada 10.68 and 3.42; at a 10% conversion rate this confirms Córdoba’s edge in chance creation. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5, since the 2.66 expected goals combined with seasonal 63%/68% rates and recent form (2.2 vs 2.2) give a clear edge to Over 1.5 over Under.

Córdoba were level at the break in 53% of their home matches, whereas Granada record a half-time draw in only 32% of their games, which strongly supports a draw at half-time. The hosts generate higher xG (1.48 vs 1.20), take more shots (13.84 vs 10.68) and more shots on target (4.32 vs 3.42) with the same conversion rate of 10%, indicating greater offensive potential. In their last five matches Córdoba won all five (100% wins) and in those games averaged 2.6 second-half goals and won the second half in 100% of cases, suggesting they typically seize the initiative after the break. Granada have lost 60% of their last five matches and display weaker xG and accuracy metrics, so they have a lower probability of staging a turnaround after half-time; therefore the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a Córdoba win (X/1).