Corinthians vs Fluminense: match statistics

Corinthians are going through a clear crisis: they have picked up just 1 point in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 goals and losing 4 times. Fluminense sit fifth in the table, with 12 wins and 41 goals scored this season, compared with Corinthians’ 8 victories and 28 goals, but they have won just 15% of their away matches. At home, Corinthians concede an average of only 0.93 goals and keep a clean sheet in 43% of matches, while Fluminense concede 1.62 goals per game away from home. On the other hand, the visitors rarely fail to score on the road, doing so in just 15% of matches, compared with 36% for Corinthians at home. Fluminense’s away record is primarily defined by draws, which account for as many as 46% of their matches, making an evenly shared spoils the most likely outcome.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very high: Corinthians have seen both teams score in 71% of their matches, while Fluminense have recorded this outcome in 77%, well above the league average of 59%. The hosts create plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.97 xG and 6.71 shots on target per match, while Fluminense concede an average of 1.62 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in only 8% of their away appearances. Fluminense score an average of 1.31 goals away from home, while the Corinthians defense is far from impenetrable, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.00 goal and preventing the opposition from scoring in only 29% of matches. In their last five matches, both teams conceded 1.6 goals per game, while BTTS landed in 80% of Corinthians matches and 60% of Fluminense matches, respectively. Although Corinthians scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, the visitors' defensive weakness and the hosts' high attacking potential support a scenario in which both sides find the net.

The threshold of at least two goals looks the safest option, as Corinthians matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 71% of cases, while Fluminense matches have done so in as many as 92%. At home, Corinthians average 1.97 xG and 6.71 shots on target, whereas Fluminense allow opponents 1.69 xG away from home and concede 1.62 goals per match. Both teams have conceded 1.6 goals per game across their last five outings, which reduces the significance of Corinthians’ weaker recent finishing, with the hosts scoring just 0.8 goals per match during this period. At the same time, the 2.5 line is considerably more balanced: historically, Over 2.5 has landed in 64% of Corinthians matches, but in only 38% of Fluminense’s away fixtures. Therefore, Over 1.5 is best supported by both the season profiles and the quality of chances created by the home side.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Corinthians were level at the break in 43% of their matches and Fluminense in 38%, with average first-half goals of just 1.00 and 1.08, respectively. The hosts concede only 0.36 goals per match before the break, while the visitors score 0.54 during this phase, limiting Fluminense’s chances of taking an early lead. After the interval, Corinthians clearly improve: they score an average of 1.07 goals, while Fluminense concede 1.08 goals in second halves away from home. The hosts’ long-term advantage is significant, as they win 71% of their matches and collect 2.36 points per game, compared with Fluminense’s 15% win rate and 0.92 points per match. Corinthians’ weaker recent run, with 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, increases the risk of a draw or an away success, but the second-half profile still most strongly supports the X/1 scenario.