Coritiba vs Vasco da Gama: match statistics

I expect an away win (Vasco da Gama) because their attack holds a clear quantitative and qualitative advantage: Vasco scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches versus Coritiba’s 4, and they average 1.67 goals away compared to the hosts’ 0.33 goals in home fixtures. The visitors take more shots and have better efficiency — on average 14.67 shots and 4.67 shots on target per game with an 11% conversion rate, while Coritiba record 11.33 shots, 2.67 on target and a 3% conversion in home matches. Coritiba’s defense at home looks statistically solid (only 0.67 conceded goals per game and 33% clean sheets), whereas Vasco concede 2.33 goals on average away and have no clean sheets (0%). xG supports the visitors’ edge in chance creation: Vasco generate 1.43 xG away versus Coritiba’s 1.07 xG, while the hosts face an average xG against of 1.83, suggesting Coritiba’s low goals conceded may be partially down to luck. Considering the higher average points per match for the visitors in the last 5 games (2.2 vs 1.8) and the fact Coritiba fail to score in 67% of home matches, I assess the probability distribution as: home 20%, draw 25%, away 55%.

Both teams give a strong signal for BTTS - Yes: Coritiba has a season BTTS rate of 80% and Vasco 100%, versus a league BTTS level of 56%. Vasco concedes on average 2.33 goals per match while Coritiba scores 1.6; additionally Coritiba produces xG 2.14 per match against Vasco’s xG against 1.38, indicating the hosts will create concrete chances against Vasco’s weaker defense. In the last 5 matches Vasco averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Coritiba averaged 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded; although in the last 5 BTTS was 0% for Coritiba and 100% for Vasco, the season-long absence of clean sheets for both teams (0% clean sheets) and season BTTS of 80%/100% suggest both sides typically allow goals. Shooting stats confirm this: Coritiba averages 19.8 shots with 6.8 on target at 8% conversion, and Vasco 14.67 shots with 4.67 on target at 11% conversion, so both teams create and convert chances. Considering the 80% and 100% season BTTS, 0% clean sheets and high xG plus Vasco’s 2.33 average goals conceded, I predict BTTS as the most likely outcome.

Calculated xG gives Coritiba 1.76 goals (average of offensive xG 2.14 and xG conceded to Vasco 1.38) and Vasco 1.21 goals (average of offensive xG 1.43 and xG conceded to Coritiba 1.00), totaling ~2.97 xG. With λ=2.97 the Poisson distribution indicates about a 79.8% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 57.3% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Seasonal metrics confirm this signal: Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Coritiba’s matches and 100% of Vasco’s matches, and both teams score in 80% and 100% of games respectively, so I assign Over 1.5 an 85% probability. The 2.5 line has mixed but meaningful support – seasonally 60% for Coritiba and 100% for Vasco, however Coritiba scored only 4 goals in the last 5 matches versus Vasco’s 11, so I give a moderate 60% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely (Poisson ≈35% and seasonally 20%/33%), therefore I prefer the Under at that line.

Coritiba has a clear seasonal advantage: an average of 2.0 points per game versus Vasco’s 0.33, and 60% home wins versus 0% away wins for the visitors; additionally the home xG is 2.14 versus 1.43 for Vasco, indicating higher-quality chances. Despite this, Vasco are more active before the break — the visitors score on average 0.67 goals by half-time versus Coritiba’s 0.4, and 67% of their away matches are level at the break, so a draw at Half-Time is a realistic scenario. Coritiba, however, improve after the break: they earn an average of 1.8 points in second halves, and their second-half goal difference is +4, which favors turnarounds and winning matches. On top of that Vasco concede 2.33 goals per game on average, and both teams frequently exchange goals (both teams to score in 80% of Coritiba’s home matches and 100% of Vasco’s away matches), increasing the likelihood of goals after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Coritiba win at Full-Time (X/1).