Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: match statistics
Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Correcaminos UAT played against Cancún in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on April 4, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
Correcaminos UAT has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Cancún has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Correcaminos UAT scores 1.08 goals per game and allows 2.12. Cancún scores 1.63 and allows 0.93. Games in this league average 2.91 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 68% of Correcaminos UAT's games and 52% of Cancún's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 48%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Cancún has the higher season xG average, 1.41 to 1.15 per game. Correcaminos UAT takes 9.0 shots per game, while Cancún takes 11.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Correcaminos UAT leads at halftime in 8% of its games and scores 0.72 goals per game after halftime. Cancún leads at halftime in 48% and scores 0.78 after halftime.
When the teams score
Correcaminos UAT's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Cancún, it is minutes 16-30 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.91 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors, Cancún: they have 13 wins and 44 goals this season versus Correcaminos’ 5 wins and 27 goals, clearly indicating superiority in points return and efficiency. The biggest gap is in defense — Cancún concedes 1.15 goals on average away with 31% clean sheets, while the hosts concede 2.08 at home and have only 8% clean sheets. Offensively both teams are similar: Correcaminos score 1.25 goals at home with xG 1.27 from 10 shots (4.08 on target), and Cancún away score 1.23 with xG 1.11 from 9.46 shots, so the visitors’ edge stems more from defensive organization than from chance creation. Additionally Correcaminos concede more than their xG suggests (avg xG against 1.6 vs actual 2.08 conceded), while Cancún have xG against 2.02 but concede only 1.15, indicating superior defensive efficiency for the visitors. Considering the higher away win rate for the visitors (46% vs 25% home wins) and the better goal differential (+1 vs -10), I back an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from recent form: hosts had BTTS in 80% of last 5 matches (4/5) and Cancún in 100% (5/5), indicating regular goal exchanges. Over the season Correcaminos average 2.0 scored and 0.71 conceded, while Cancún average 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded; season-long BTTS rates are 50% and 54% respectively, vs a league average of 56% — these figures support a moderate tendency toward both teams scoring. Additionally xG shows hosts with xG_for 1.69 versus guests’ xG_against 2.02 (the visitors concede a lot of expected chances), and the visitors have xG_for 1.11 versus hosts’ xG_against 1.27; together with shots on target 5.5 vs 3.69 and recent goals averages (last 5: hosts 1.4 scored/1.6 conceded, guests 1.6/1.6) this favors both sides finding the net. Although Correcaminos have a season clean sheet expected rate of 43% (which partially limits BTTS), the weight of recent-match signals and high xG against Cancún’s defense leads me to assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) and 25% (No), therefore I recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model forecasts 1.86 expected goals for Correcaminos and 1.19 for Cancún, totaling 3.05 xG — calculated as the average of home attack xG (1.69) and away conceded xG (2.02) and vice versa. This aligns with actual figures: Correcaminos score 2.0 goals on average at home, Cancún 1.23 away, and the share of matches with at least one goal is 93% and 92%. The last 5 matches further reinforce the scoring trend: both teams had 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, and both scored in 80% (home) and 100% (away) of those games. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=3.05 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈81%, P(Over 2.5) ≈59% and P(Over 3.5) ≈37%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5, also supported by season Over 1.5 rates: 71% for the home side and 62% for the visitors.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Correcaminos UAT led at half-time in 57% of their seasonal matches (8 times) and score on average 0.93 goals by the break versus 0.77 for Cancún, which supports the home side holding a lead at the break in about 45–50% of the analyzed scenarios. Over the full match the hosts average 2.00 goals versus 1.23 for Cancún, have xG of 1.69 compared to the opponents’ 1.11, while Cancún concedes as much as 2.02 xG, indicating a consistent offensive advantage for Correcaminos. Additionally, Correcaminos score on average 1.07 goals in the second half versus 0.46 for their opponents and have collected 29 points at half-time compared to 22 for Cancún, so maintaining or increasing the lead after the break is likely. On this basis the strongest signal is 1/1 with a 37% probability; the second option is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1) at 17%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Correcaminos UAT | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Correcaminos UAT is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Correcaminos UAT · 1.2 pts / game - Cancún
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 51% better for: goals scored per game.
1.08 goals / game - Correcaminos UAT · 1.63 goals / game - Cancún
Cancún is 128% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.12 goals / game - Correcaminos UAT · 0.93 goals / game - Cancún
Correcaminos UAT scores in 80% of games (20 of 25 meczów), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 meczów).
Cancún scores in 81% of games (22 of 27 meczów), while Correcaminos UAT keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Correcaminos UAT
Over / Under - Cancún
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 215% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.6 pts / game - Correcaminos UAT · 1.89 pts / game - Cancún
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Correcaminos UAT - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 8% of games and wins 20%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 48% of games and wins 48%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Correcaminos UAT
Cancún
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Correcaminos UAT | Liga | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.20 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 53% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 26% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Correcaminos UAT's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Cancún. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
The Ascenso MX match finished Correcaminos UAT 1:3 Cancún. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
Correcaminos UAT score 1.08 goals per game on average and Cancún 1.63. The Ascenso MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Correcaminos UAT's matches and 52% of Cancún's.
What form are Correcaminos UAT and Cancún in?
Over the last 5 games Correcaminos UAT have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cancún 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.