Cosenza vs Potenza Calcio: match statistics

Potenza Calcio opened the season with a 4:1 victory, while Cosenza lost their opening match 1:3, giving the visitors a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. In their last five matches, Potenza scored 8 goals and conceded 6, whereas Cosenza managed just 6 goals while conceding as many as 9. Both teams collected 7 points from their last five matches, winning 2 games each; however, Cosenza suffered two defeats during this period and has the weaker goal difference, 6:9 compared with 8:6. The hosts may benefit from home advantage, but the lack of available data on their effectiveness at home so far limits the strength of this argument. Potenza’s superior recent attacking output and just 1 goal conceded this season point to a slightly higher probability of an away victory.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the recent form of both teams, as Cosenza and Potenza have each recorded this outcome in 60% of their last 5 matches. Cosenza conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game during this period, while Potenza scored 1.6, giving the visitors a solid basis for finding the net. The hosts should also create chances, with their average xG standing at 1.31, while Potenza allowed opponents as much as 2.20 xG per match. An additional argument is the league’s high BTTS frequency of 70%, although the hosts’ advantage in this matchup is not pronounced enough to rule out a Potenza goal.

Cosenza’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8, while Potenza’s games averaged 2.8 goals. During this run, Potenza allowed opponents an xG of 2.20, well above the 1.31 xG Cosenza have created recently, strengthening the hosts’ chances of scoring. The visitors generated an average of 1.50 xG, while Cosenza allowed opponents 1.19 xG, so their contribution to the goal tally is also realistic. Both teams recorded both teams to score in 60% of their last five matches, while the league average of 3.7 goals and 80% of matches featuring at least three goals support the prospect of an open game. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.85 goals gives this lower line a significantly greater safety margin than Over 2.5.

The strongest signal for the first half is a draw: both teams were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, with each averaging 0.6 goals before the break. Across those five matches, Potenza conceded just 0.2 goals per game before half-time, while Cosenza did not trail at the break in any of them. After the interval, the pattern is more favourable to the visitors, who averaged 1.0 goal, while Cosenza conceded as many as 1.4 goals. The hosts scored only 0.6 goals after half-time and lost the second half in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with Potenza’s 40% rate of second-half defeats. Data from Cosenza’s only home match points to a 4:1 win after a half-time draw, but such a small sample carries less weight than the balanced five-match run. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2).