CR Khemis Zemamra vs FUS Rabat: match statistics

Seasonal figures show strong similarity: CR Khemis Zemamra have 9 wins, 7 draws and 12 losses with 28 goals scored, while FUS Rabat have 9 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses with 30 goals. At home the hosts score 0.93 goals and concede 0.93 per game with average xG 1.24 (xG against 1.28), whereas the visitors on the road score 1.07 and concede 1.36 with xG 1.27 (xG against 1.35), yielding very close expected goal values of 1.24 vs 1.27. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 7 goals and recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (average 1.0 point per game), while FUS have scored 5 goals and had 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (average 1.4 points per game). Chance creation is similar — the hosts average 9.79 shots and 3.00 on target at home with a 9% conversion, and the visitors away average 10.29 shots, 3.29 on target and 10% conversion. Given the hosts’ better home defense (0.93 goals conceded and 43% clean sheets versus 1.36 conceded and 21% clean sheets for the visitors away) and the even xG and shot numbers, a draw is the most likely outcome; I propose a probability distribution of 35% home win, 40% draw and 25% away win.

Both teams have a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.07, however the home side posts a higher xG at 1.49 versus 1.27 for the visitors, and the away team concedes 1.36 goals on average compared to 1.07 for the hosts, which favors a home goal. Seasonally BTTS occurs in 64% of the home team’s matches and 43% of the away team’s matches, but in the last 5 games the rates are 80% for the home side and 60% for the visitors, so recent form strongly supports a both teams to score scenario. Both squads have low clean sheet percentages at 21% and in the last 5 fixtures they concede on average 1.6 (home) and 1.4 (away) goals, confirming a tendency to allow goals. Additionally recent xG of 1.55 (home) and 1.68 (away) and average shots on target 4.21 vs 3.29 show both sides create chances, so I predict BTTS - Yes as more likely.

Expected goals were calculated from xG: the home side has attacking xG 1.49 while the away defense concedes xG 1.35, yielding an expected value ≈1.42 for the home team; the visitors have attacking xG 1.27 against the home defense xG 1.24, yielding ≈1.26 for the away team, expected total = 2.68. A Poisson model for expected total 2.68 gives P(>1.5) ≈74.8%, P(>2.5) ≈50.1% and P(>3.5) ≈28.2%. Season metrics confirm the strength of Over 1.5 — home teams recorded over 1.5 goals in 79% of matches, visitors in 71% (average 75%), so Poisson and seasonal stats translate to a high probability around 75%. Season Over2.5 figures are lower (home 29%, away 36%, average 33%), but in the last 5 matches both teams have Over2.5 at 40% each, which together with the expected total 2.68 supports roughly a 50% chance for Over 2.5. Consequently the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: bet Over 1.5) based on xG (1.42 vs 1.26), season rates 79%/71% and the Poisson distribution.

At half-time a draw is most likely: home teams were level at the break in 43% of matches, away teams in 36%, and average first-half goals are 0.57 (home) versus 0.50 (away), indicating a low tempo in the initial 45 minutes. After the break the favorites are the home side — they have higher xG 1.49 versus 1.27 for the visitors, register more on-target shots (4.21 vs 3.29) and average 1.5 points per home match compared to 1.07 points per away match, which increases their chances in the second half. Additionally, homes led at the break in 36% of matches and their win rate is also 36%, while away teams led in 29% and won 29% of matches — this suggests that a lead at the break is rarely overturned. Therefore the most secure scenario is HT/FT draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) — I assess it at 28%, with the 1/1 variant at 25% and X/X at 14% as an alternative. Other combinations (e.g. 2/2 10% or 2/X 7%) received lower probabilities due to the visitors’ lower xG (1.27) and fewer on-target shots (3.29), which limit their capacity for a turnaround.