CR Khemis Zemamra vs Maghreb Fès: match statistics

Maghreb Fès is statistically stronger: they sit 2nd with an 8–7–0 record this season, scoring 22 and conceding 7, whereas CR Khemis Zemamra are 8th with a 5–4–6 record and a 14–19 goal differential. The home side display a solid defensive profile at home — conceding only 0.57 goals per home game on average and posting a 57% clean sheet rate while averaging 0.71 goals scored. The visitors, however, are more efficient offensively: their shot conversion on the road is 14% versus 8% for the hosts, they average 3.25 shots on target per match compared to 2.86, and they have a lower share of goalless matches (25% vs 43%). In the last 5 fixtures both teams have scored 7 goals each, but Maghreb Fès has a higher point yield in that sequence (2.2 pts/match vs 1.6), while both teams feature a high draw rate (hosts 57% draws at home, visitors 63% draws away). Therefore the most likely outcome I select is a draw.

I back No BTTS because the strongest signal is the home defensive setup — CR Khemis Zemamra concedes just 0.43 goals per home match and has kept a clean sheet in 71% of home games, while their season rate of matches with both teams scoring is only 29%. The away side averages 1.13 goals scored away and concedes 0.5 away, so their ability to breach the hosts’ solid defense is moderate. Counterpoint: form over the last 5 matches shows BTTS in 60% for both teams and each side has scored 7 goals in their last five games, with home xG 1.34 versus away 1.01, indicating some goal potential. However, higher home efficiency (conversion rate 20% vs 14%) and the dominant home clean sheet rate (71%) prevail, making No BTTS the more likely outcome.

The model projects approximately 2.36 total goals: home ~1.26 (attacking xG 1.34 vs opponent defensive xG 1.17) and away ~1.10 (attacking xG 1.01 vs home defensive xG 1.19). Seasonal stats indicate a low probability of Over 2.5 — Over 2.5 occurred in only 29% of home matches and 13% of away matches, meaning the majority (71% and 87%) finished under 2.5. Additionally, hosts have 71% clean sheets and concede an average of 0.43 goals at home, while visitors concede 0.5 on the road, which suppresses scoring. Although the home side shows higher shot conversion (20% vs 14%) and averages 1.86 goals at home, the low league average of 2.12 and virtually no Over 3.5 for visitors (0%) strengthen the under 2.5 signal. Therefore I recommend under 2.5 as the strongest line; over 1.5 remains plausible (~68%) but is less certain than under 2.5.

CR Khemis Zemamra holds a clear advantage: the home side win 71% of matches at home and score an average of 1.86 goals per game versus Maghreb Fès’s 1.13. At half-time the hosts lead in 57% of matches (4 of those so far), with an average of 0.71 goals scored and only 0.14 conceded by the break, while the visitors average 0.5 scored and 0.25 conceded by half-time. Supporting this is an xG of 1.34 for the home side against 1.01 for the visitors, alongside 4.14 shots on target vs 3.25 and a higher conversion rate of 20% vs 14%, which increases the chance of maintaining the lead. The hosts also record clean sheets in 71% of the season, so the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and Full-Time victory). I assign concrete probabilities: 45% for 1/1, 27% for X/1 and 15% for X/X; scenarios starting with a visitors’ lead (2/...) are practically absent in the data and were assigned 0%.