Cracovia Kraków II vs KSZO: match statistics

KSZO is the clear favorite: they have 20 wins this season versus Cracovia II’s 8, have scored 62 goals versus 37 and have only 4 losses compared to the hosts’ 18. The visitors’ key advantage stems from defense and result stability — KSZO concedes on average 0.69 goals away and has 38% clean sheets, while Cracovia concedes 1.81 goals at home and has 19% clean sheets. Offensively KSZO score on average 1.94 goals away with a conversion rate of 22%, while the hosts score 1.31 goals at home with a 12% conversion; although the hosts’ home xG is 1.46 versus the visitors’ 1.38 away xG, KSZO’s efficiency translates into a higher number of actual goals. Recent form over the last 5 matches also favors the visitors: Cracovia has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses and 0.8 points per game, KSZO has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and 2.0 points per game (last 5 matches: 9 goals scored and 7 conceded vs 8 scored and 11 conceded). Based on this I tip KSZO to win (2) and assign them a 75% chance, draw 15% and home win 10%, because the advantage in efficiency (22% vs 12%), defense (0.69 vs 1.81) and consistency of results (2.0 pts per game vs 0.8) is decisive.

Both teams show a high frequency of matches with both sides scoring: Cracovia II 69% and KSZO 56%, and in the last 5 meetings both sides produced BTTS in 80% of games. Cracovia II averages 1.94 goals scored per game, KSZO also 1.94; Cracovia concedes 1.13 goals on the season but has conceded 2.2 goals across the last 5 matches, indicating a weakened defense. KSZO have 62 goals scored this season and only 29 conceded, and in the last 5 matches they scored 9 and conceded 7, showing the visitors can both attack and allow scoring opportunities. xG supports these conclusions: the home side posts 1.56 xG per game vs. 1.38 xG for the visitors, with xG against of 1.22 and 1.17 respectively, suggesting realistic chances for both teams. Considering the league BTTS rate of 59%, an average of 3.1 goals per game, and the fact that 63% of Cracovia’s matches over 2.5 goals also featured BTTS (50% for KSZO), the strongest signal from the data points to BTTS - Yes.

Both teams possess clear offensive potential: Cracovia II averages 1.94 goals scored and concedes 1.13 per match, while KSZO scores 1.94 and concedes 0.69, which favors goals. xG values are 1.56 for Cracovia and 1.38 for KSZO with xG against of 1.22 and 1.17; averaging these pairs yields expected goals of 1.37 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors (total 2.67). Seasonally, Over 1.5 occurred in 81% of Cracovia’s matches and 63% of KSZO’s matches (average ~72%), and Over 2.5 in 69% and 50%; in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred in 80% for Cracovia and 60% for KSZO, which strengthens the signal for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is significantly less likely (38%/25%, average ~32%), therefore the strongest and most reliable selection is Over 1.5, with moderate support for Over 2.5.

The first half is expected to be low-scoring: the home side averages 0.79 goals by halftime, the away side 0.70, and the first half ends with a clean sheet for the home team in 71% and for the away team in 70% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw at the break. Over the full 90 minutes the statistical advantage belongs to the visitors — they average 2.44 points and have a 75% win rate this season versus 1.81 points and a 50% win rate for the home side — so KSZO is more likely to win after 90 minutes. Second-half metrics indicate potential for a turnaround after the break: the home team averages 1.64 second-half goals vs 1.00 for the visitors, but in the last 5 matches the away side won the second half in 75% of cases and averaged 2.25 points for the second half, compared to 20% and 0.8 points for the home team. Additionally, the visitors are more clinical — shot conversion 22% vs 14% for the hosts with xG 1.38 for the visitors vs 1.56 for the hosts — suggesting KSZO can exploit its chances, particularly after the break. Therefore my primary pick is X/2 (draw at half-time, away win at full-time) at 32% probability, while due to frequent clean halves I also assign 22% to X/X; the remaining scenarios are distributed across lower probabilities.