Cracovia Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa: match statistics

Raków Częstochowa have the slightly better recent trend, collecting 7 points from five matches and scoring 9 goals during that span, while Cracovia have taken 6 points and scored just 2 goals. The hosts have failed to score in their last three league matches, and in their only home game they lost 0:2 despite generating a high xG of 2.26 and registering 19 shots. Raków have also lost their only away match so far and concede an average of 2 goals, but they score an average of 1 goal and have not yet failed to find the net. Both defenses allow opponents chances of a similar quality, with average xG against figures of 1.39 for Cracovia and 1.47 for Raków, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely. The visitors’ superior current finishing and significantly better goal-scoring record point towards a narrow victory.

Although both teams recorded a 100% BTTS rate in the season data, the sample is clearly small, while Cracovia’s current form significantly lowers the likelihood of them scoring. The hosts have scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches and recorded BTTS in only 20% of those appearances, with a total of 2 goals. Raków score much more consistently, averaging 1.8 goals across their last 5 league rounds, but Cracovia conceded only 0.6 goals per match during that period. Cracovia’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.36, while Raków allow opponents just 1.03 xG, which does not provide the hosts with a clearly strong case for scoring. BTTS - No is therefore the most likely outcome, primarily due to the risk that Cracovia’s underperforming attack will fail to beat the visitors’ defense.

Cracovia have scored only 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 games, while Raków have conceded an average of 1.0 goal over the same period, limiting the hosts’ projection to 0.85 goals. The visitors have shown a clearly stronger attack, averaging 1.8 goals with an xG of 1.90 across their last five appearances, but Cracovia’s defense has conceded just 0.6 goals per match during that time. None of Cracovia’s last five matches produced at least 3 goals, whereas Raków exceeded that threshold in 80% of their games, so the signals for a high-scoring game are mixed. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as the projected total of 2.30 goals leaves a clear margin to four goals, and neither team has recorded a game above 3.5 goals in the season data available so far.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Raków win at full-time. In their last five matches, Cracovia were level at the break in 80% of cases, while both teams averaged just 0.4 goals before half-time; the hosts conceded only 0.2 goals during that period. After the interval, however, the form advantage shifts towards Raków, who averaged 1.4 goals in second halves, whereas Cracovia failed to score a single goal after the break. Raków also averaged 1.8 goals per match across their last five appearances, compared with Cracovia’s 0.4, while the hosts failed to score in the second half in 100% of those matches. Although Cracovia have the more favorable average xG figures—1.99 compared with Raków’s 1.70—the visitors’ current finishing form and clearly stronger second-half performance point to a turnaround after the break.