Crawley Town vs Crewe Alexandra: match statistics

Crawley Town sit 7th, one place above Crewe Alexandra, and have collected 6 points from their last five matches compared with the visitors’ 5. During this period, the hosts scored 5 goals and conceded just 4, while Crewe scored 4 and conceded as many as 7. Both teams have drawn frequently, but Crawley have recorded three draws and just one defeat in their last five matches, whereas Crewe have lost two of their five. The defensive gap and slightly better points tally favor the hosts, although the low attacking output of both sides increases the likelihood of a tightly contested match.

The stronger, though still moderate, signal is BTTS - No, as Crawley recorded both teams scoring in only 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with 60% for Crewe. The visitors averaged just 0.8 goals per game during this period and scored 4 goals in total, increasing the risk that they will fail to convert their chances away from home. Crawley conceded an average of only 0.8 goals per match, despite allowing 1.62 xG, meaning the hosts’ defense often limited the actual number of goals conceded. Crewe conceded 1.4 goals per game and allowed opponents 1.66 xG, so a home goal is likely, but the visitors’ lower finishing efficiency supports the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last five matches, Crawley averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Crewe scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.4. The goal figures for both teams point to a moderate combined total: Crawley’s matches produced an average of 1.8 goals, compared with 2.2 goals in Crewe’s matches. Only 20% of the hosts’ recent matches and 40% of the visitors’ matches went Over 2.5 goals, limiting the probability of a very high-scoring game. The underlying chance quality is slightly higher, as Crawley’s xG stands at 1.33 against Crewe’s 1.66 xG conceded, while Crewe generates 1.00 xG against the 1.62 xG allowed by the hosts. The projected total of 2.40 goals leaves room for a 1:1, 2:0 or 2:1 result, making Under 3.5 the strongest option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Crawley Town victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Crewe were trailing at that stage in 3 of their last 5 games. Crawley averaged 0.4 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded before half-time, whereas Crewe scored 0.2 and allowed opponents to score 0.8 goals. Across their last five matches overall, the hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals compared with 1.4 for the visitors, while their draw rate stood at 60%, against 40% for Crewe. After the break, both teams recorded identical averages of 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, so Crawley's advantage should build gradually, with the match likely to be decided in its closing stages.