Cremonese vs Bologna: match statistics

I expect an away win (Bologna) because the 9th-place side has clear numerical advantages over 18th-place Cremonese. Bologna have scored 38 goals this season versus Cremonese’s 25; away they average 1.6 goals per game with a shot conversion rate around 14%, whereas Cremonese at home manage only 0.86 goals per game and an 8% conversion. In the last 5 matches the visitors average 1.4 points per game (2W, 1D, 2L), while the hosts average just 0.6 PPG (1W, 4L); Cremonese have conceded 11 goals in five games versus 8 conceded by Bologna. Defensively Cremonese concede 1.5 goals per home game on average and have a higher xG against (1.65) than Bologna away (xG against 1.3), and they also finish matches goalless more often (43% FTS vs 13% for Bologna), indicating problems creating and converting chances. Given the differences in goals (38 vs 25), conversion (14% vs 8%) and recent form (PPG 1.4 vs 0.6), I assign Bologna a 60% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 20% for the hosts.

Statistical analysis points to a BTTS - Yes scenario. Bologna has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Cremonese posts 33% seasonally and 40% in the last 5, which overall favors signals for both teams scoring. Cremonese have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per match), and Bologna have scored 7 in that period (1.4 per match); additionally Bologna average 1.6 goals seasonally with a conversion rate of 14% versus Cremonese’s 0.93 and 6%, so the visitors look more dangerous offensively. Despite the home side’s low seasonal goal output, Cremonese’s home xG is 1.62 versus Bologna’s xG against of 1.30 and similar numbers of shots on target (3.93 vs 3.8), while clean sheets are only 33% and 27%, all of which increases the probability that both teams will find the net.

I project total expected goals of 2.40 (Cremonese 1.05, Bologna 1.35). Cremonese has xG 1.62 but is scoring just 0.93 goals season-to-date with a low conversion rate of 6.0% and an xG of 1.08 over the last 5 matches, hence the downward adjustment to ~1.05. Bologna has xG 1.22, a higher finishing rate of 14.0%, an xG of 1.55 in the last 5 matches and has scored 7 goals in those 5 games, so I forecast around 1.35 goals for the visitors. The 2.40 total implies approximate probabilities: over 1.5 ≈ 69%, over 2.5 ≈ 43% and over 3.5 ≈ 22%, which aligns with seasonal rates (home over1.5 67% and away 73%, over2.5 40% and 53%). For these reasons I recommend an over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal — the combination of Cremonese’s high xG (1.62) and Bologna’s clinical conversion (14.0%) increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match.

I predict a half-time draw and an away win (X/2) as the most likely scenario. Cremonese led at the break only once (7% of matches), and both teams have high half-time draw rates — hosts 67%, visitors 60% — which strongly supports a draw HT. Bologna scores on average 1.6 goals per game with a conversion rate of 14% versus 0.93 and 6% for Cremonese, so the visitors have a conversion edge that can translate into a win after the break. Cremonese produce more xG at home (1.62 vs 1.22) and more shots (15.6 vs 11.27), but low conversion and no goals at half-time in the last five matches (0.0 average) suggest wasted HT chances and greater Bologna opportunities in the second half. In light of these figures I assign 35% to X/2 as the strongest signal, with alternatives 2/2 (19%) and X/X (19%).