Crusaders vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Ballymena United enter the match as league leaders and won their only league fixture so far, scoring 3 goals and keeping a clean sheet. Away from home, the visitors average 8 shots, 3 of them on target, with a very high conversion rate of 38%. Crusaders lost their only match of the season 1:2, and have conceded 8 goals in their last five appearances, indicating defensive vulnerability despite recording 3 wins during that period. Both teams have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, but Ballymena have the better current league record and have demonstrated away from home that they can win without conceding. The caveat is that the visitors’ average away xG stands at just 0.99, while their xG conceded is 1.70, so the advantage is not overwhelming; nevertheless, an away win remains the most likely outcome.

Recent form clearly supports goals from both sides: Crusaders and Ballymena United have each averaged 1.8 goals over their last 5 matches. At the same time, the hosts have conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period, while the visitors have conceded 1.4, giving both attacks genuine opportunities to score. The BTTS rate across their last five appearances stands at 80% for Crusaders and 60% for Ballymena, well above the league average of 40%. The xG figures are also similar and sufficient for a goal, at 1.20 for the hosts and 1.27 for the visitors. Although Ballymena’s data from a very small seasonal sample shows 100% clean sheets, their current run of seven goals conceded in five matches points more strongly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Both teams have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Crusaders have conceded 1.6 goals per game compared with 1.4 for Ballymena United. At least 3 goals were scored in 4 of the last 5 matches for each team, clearly exceeding the league average of 2.6 goals. The quality of chances also points to an open game: average xG stands at 1.20 for Crusaders and 1.27 for Ballymena, with the hosts conceding 1.24 xG. Ballymena have already scored 3 goals in the available season data, but their xG of 0.99 and shot conversion rate of 38% suggest that this output should not be viewed as a sustainable norm. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5, as the combination of current attacking form and recently weaker defensive performances gives a high probability of at least 2 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Ballymena United win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Crusaders were trailing at that stage in as many as 60% of cases. Ballymena averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded after half-time during this run, whereas Crusaders scored 1.0 goal after the interval. In addition, the visitors won the second half in 60% of their last matches and did not lose any, while the hosts won the full match in 60% of cases but also suffered 2 defeats in 5 appearances. The season data is based on a very small sample, but it points to clear potential for Ballymena: 3 goals scored, a lead at the break, and all three points in their only match to date.