CS U Craiova vs CFR Cluj: match statistics

CS U Craiova, the league leader, holds a clear statistical edge: at home they score on average 1.88 goals per match with an average xG of 1.71, while CFR Cluj score 1.25 goals on average away with an xG of 1.35. Craiova’s defense is more solid at home — conceding on average 0.75 goals per match with xG against 0.97, whereas Cluj concede 1.31 goals away with xG against 1.47; additionally the hosts keep a clean sheet in 44% of home matches versus 25% clean sheets for the visitors on the road. In attack Craiova creates more chances (15.81 shots with 5.44 on target per home match) than Cluj away (11.69 shots and 4.69 on target), and the probability of failing to score is only 6% for the hosts versus 13% for the guests. Both teams have 7 goals and 3 wins in the last 5 matches, but Craiova has a higher average points return in that period (2.0 vs 1.8) and a better home record: 69% wins and a +18 goal difference at home compared to 38% wins and a -1 goal difference away for Cluj. Considering the advantage in possession (61% vs 45%), greater chance creation and stronger defense, I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities at 65% for Craiova, 20% for a draw and 15% for CFR Cluj.

Both teams have season BTTS at 63% and 60% in the last 5 matches, indicating a sustained trend of mutual scoring. CS U Craiova averages 1.94 goals per match (xG 1.91), registering 17.13 shots and 6.81 on target, while CFR Cluj averages 1.25 goals per match (xG 1.35) with 11.69 shots and 4.69 on target, so both sides create genuine scoring opportunities. Combined xG for both teams is 3.26 (1.91+1.35), and both have only 25% of matches with a clean sheet, which further increases the likelihood of both teams scoring; by comparison the league average BTTS is 51%. In the last 5 fixtures both teams scored 7 goals each, but Craiova conceded 4 goals (0.8 per match) and Cluj conceded 6 goals (1.2 per match), suggesting Cluj is more susceptible to conceding. Considering the 63% season BTTS, 60% in the last 5, the high total xG of 3.26 and low 25% clean sheets, I select BTTS - Yes as more probable (72% vs 28%).

I assess expected goals at 1.69 for CS U Craiova (home xG 1.91 vs opponent xG conceded 1.47 → average 1.69) and 1.32 for CFR Cluj (away xG 1.35 vs opponent xG conceded 1.29 → 1.32), totaling 3.01 expected goals. Seasonal stats confirm an offensive tendency: home side has Over 1.5 in 88% of matches, away side in 69%, both teams Over 0.5 in 100% and BTTS at 63%. A Poisson estimate with λ=3.01 yields about an 80% chance of more than 1.5 goals, around 58% for over 2.5 and roughly 35% for over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal Over 2.5 shares (63% home, 50% away). Additionally, CS U Craiova averages 6.81 shots on target versus 4.69 for CFR Cluj and 17.13 shots per match versus 11.69 for the visitors, increasing the hosts' scoring potential. Based on this, I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal, since the combined 3.01 goals projection and high seasonal Over 1.5 rates (88% vs 69%) provide the largest statistical edge.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw with a home win (X/1), because draws occur for both teams in 44% of matches, while home teams win 63% of fixtures compared to 38% for away teams. The home side has a clear offensive advantage: seasonally they score an average of 1.94 goals versus 1.25 for the visitors and have xG of 1.91 versus 1.35, with 17.13 shots and 6.81 on target compared to opponents’ 11.69 and 4.69. In the second half the home team scores an average of 1.06 goals, and away teams concede an average of 0.63 after the break, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround following a half-time draw. Although the home side led at the break in 38% of matches (away teams in 31%) and in the last five fixtures away teams were more often leading at HT (40% vs 20%), the xG, shot and season points figures (2.06 pts for home vs 1.44 pts for away) justify a strong X/1 signal; therefore I also assign a significant probability to 1/1 (25%) and a moderate probability to X/X (11%).