Csákvári TK vs Karcag SE: match statistics

Csákvári TK holds a clear advantage based on the numbers: at home they average 1.92 goals per match and have scored 38 goals this season, while Karcag SE have 25 goals in the entire season and score only 0.75 goals per away match on average. The hosts create significantly more high-quality chances — 5.58 shots on target and 13.25 total shots per match with a 14% conversion rate versus 2.75 on target and 9.5 total shots with an 8% conversion for the visitors — and their average xG is 1.64 compared to Karcag’s 1.18 xG, confirming the offensive superiority. Form also favors the home side: in the last 5 matches Csákvári scored 12 goals and recorded a 2-2-1 record (1.6 points per match), while Karcag have 4 goals and a 1-0-4 record in their last 5 (0.6 points per match). Defensively the gap is narrower but still in the hosts’ favor — they concede 1.33 goals at home vs Karcag conceding 1.58 goals away, and the share of games without scoring is 8% for the home team versus 42% for the visitors, which makes it significantly harder for Karcag to pick up points. On this basis I predict a home win and assess the probabilities as 65% for Csákvári, 20% for a draw and 15% for a Karcag win.

Csákvári has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches (4/5) and scored 12 goals in that period, averaging 2.4 per game, with last xG 1.49, indicating high offensive activity from the home side. Seasonally the hosts have xG_for 1.7 and average 1.33 goals per game (38 goals), with an average on-target shots of 5.42, so the probability of the hosts scoring is high. Karcag has weaker offensive efficiency: 0.75 goals per game this season (25 goals) and only 4 goals in the last 5 matches (0.8), although their last 5 matches show xG_for 1.5, meaning they create chances despite poor finishing. The visitors concede 1.58 goals per game this season and 1.8 in the last 5 matches (9 conceded), which increases the chance of the hosts finding the net; considering season BTTS rates of 42% (hosts) and 50% (guests) and a league BTTS level of 47%, the signals favor both teams scoring. Based on the above figures I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability 60% versus 40% for No.

A model combining teams' xG and opponents' defensive xG yields an expected 1.63 goals for Csákvári and 1.32 for Karcag, totaling 2.95 goals. Under a Poisson distribution this translates to roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 57% for Over 2.5 and 34% for Over 3.5. The home side generates clearly better-quality chances: on average 5.42 shots on target and xG 1.70 per game versus 2.75 shots on target and xG 1.18 for the visitors, which supports a higher goal count. In the last 5 matches Csákvári scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and had 80% of games Over 2.5, while Karcag scored 4 goals (0.8) with 40% Over 2.5, reinforcing the over signal. As a result the strongest selection is Over 2.5 — both the combined xG of 2.95 and the home side’s shot dominance and form indicate a higher probability of exceeding this line.

The HT/FT forecast favors the 1/1 scenario (home team leading at the break and winning by full-time): I assigned it a 45% probability because the home side has a clear offensive advantage — home xG is 1.7 versus the visitors’ 1.18 xG, and the hosts average 5.42 shots on target compared to 2.75 for the away team. In the last 5 matches the home team led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5) and scored 11 first-half goals, while the visitors scored 4; on average the home team scores 1.4 goals by half-time versus 0.2 for the away side. Additionally, over the season the hosts average 1.33 goals per match versus 0.75 for the visitors, and shot conversion is 10% for the home team against 8% for the away team, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. Although draws at half-time occur frequently season-wide (50% half-time draws for the home side), the distribution also accounts for alternatives: X/1 at 18% and X/X at 12%, while scenarios favoring the away team receive low probabilities due to only 8% away wins across the season.