CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: match statistics

CSKA 1948 sit 4th with a record of 16 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses and 45 goals scored, while Botev Vratsa have 8 wins, 11 draws, 9 losses and only 21 goals. At home CSKA average 1.71 goals per game (xG 1.51), register 12.07 shots with 4.64 on target and a 14% conversion rate, whereas Botev away average 0.86 goals (xG 1.17), 8.79 shots and 3.71 on target with a 10% conversion. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 10 goals and have a 3-1-1 record averaging 2.0 points per game, while the visitors scored 5 goals in their last 5 and are 2-1-2 averaging 1.4 points per game. Defensively Botev have a higher clean sheet rate on the road (43% vs 29% for CSKA at home), but concede an average xG against of 1.62 away (higher than the 1.51 xG created by CSKA) and fail to score in 50% of away matches, which limits their offensive threat. Considering 45 vs 21 goals this season, the hosts’ superior efficiency and higher shot volume, and better recent form (2.0 PPG vs 1.4), I favor a CSKA win.

Both teams have very low seasonal BTTS rates: 29% (CSKA) and 29% (Botev), meaning only about 3 in 10 matches see goals from both sides. CSKA keeps a clean sheet in 57% of matches, Botev in 43%, and the league has 69% of matches with a clean sheet, which strongly favors a No Goal scenario. Seasonal goals averages are only 0.64 for CSKA and 0.86 for Botev, with xG of 1.24 and 1.17 respectively; the gap between xG and actual goals (home 0.64 vs xG 1.24) indicates low finishing (conversion 7% for the home team vs 10% for the away). In the last 5 matches CSKA scores on average 2.0 and concedes 1.2, while Botev 1.0 and 0.8; the last 5 matches for both show 40% BTTS, so there is a short-term uptick in BTTS probability, but not enough to overturn the seasonal trends. Overall, considering the 29% seasonal BTTS for both teams, high clean sheet rates (57% and 43%) and low goal averages, I assess No BTTS as more likely — 70% for 'no' vs 30% for 'yes'.

Based on home xG (1.24) and away xG (1.17), and opponents’ xG conceded (Botev concedes 1.62 xG, CSKA concedes 1.24 xG), I project 1.43 xG for CSKA and 1.21 xG for Botev, totaling 2.64 expected goals. This total is 0.28 higher than the league average (2.36) and implies roughly a 74% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). Season-long stats show low Over 2.5 rates (home 21%, away 29%), but CSKA’s last 5 matches form is significantly stronger: 10 goals in 5 games (2.0 avg) and 80% Over 2.5, while Botev has 5 goals (1.0 avg) and 40% Over 2.5. Both teams have low BTTS at 29% for the season, which reduces the chance of both teams scoring, but the xG advantage and recent home form for CSKA strongly support at least two goals in the match; therefore I recommend Over 1.5.

HT analysis shows the home side were level at the break in 14 of 14 home matches (14/14, 100%), while Botev Vratsa were level at half-time in 9 of 14 away matches (9/14, 64%), hence a high expected chance of a draw at the break (~82%). After the break the hosts have superior metrics: in the last 5 matches they scored an average of 1.2 goals after half-time versus 0.8 for the visitors (1.2 vs 0.8) and won the second half in 60% of cases compared to 40% for the away side. Additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.24 versus 1.17 for the visitors (xG 1.24 vs 1.17), and the visitors concede an average of 1.62 xG in away matches (1.62), favoring the hosts to score after the break. The seasonal percentage of both teams scoring is only 29% for each side (29% vs 29%), and the hosts have 93% clean halves at home at half-time (93%), which supports a low-scoring HT and a decision in the second half. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the scenario draw at half-time and a home win (X/1).