CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More: match statistics

CSKA 1948 Sofia remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, while they have collected 11 points from their last five matches. Cherno More have failed to win any of their four league fixtures and have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding as many as 11 goals during that period. At home, the hosts average 2 goals per match with a 24% shot conversion rate, whereas the visitors score just 0.5 goals away from home and fail to find the net in 50% of their matches. CSKA also register more shots, averaging 8.5 compared with 6, as well as more shots on target, 3.5 compared with 3. Although the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.69, their significantly better form and considerable advantage in attacking efficiency point to a home victory.

The case for goals from both sides is strengthened by recent results: BTTS occurred in 80% of CSKA 1948 Sofia’s last five matches and in 60% of Cherno More’s games. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match, clearly supporting the likelihood of a CSKA goal. Cherno More did score just 1.0 goal per game, but its average xG was 1.27, while CSKA allowed opponents an xG of 1.88. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and both sides failed to score in 50% of their matches, meaning the risk of a BTTS - No scenario remains significant. However, the current edge in chance creation and the visitors’ defensive weakness provide a slightly stronger argument that each team will score at least once.

CSKA 1948 have averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Cherno More conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the home side’s attacking output. CSKA’s offensive potential is further confirmed by an xG of 1.56 per match and an average of 6 shots on target, while the visitors generate an average of 1.06 xG. In the teams’ last five appearances, matches featuring at least 3 goals accounted for 60% each, while both teams scored in 80% and 60% of their matches, respectively. The projected total of 2.72 goals is above the league average of 2.54, but Cherno More’s result volatility limits confidence in Over 2.5. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as both teams scored at least one goal in 100% of their matches so far this season, while their recent-form profile points to a high probability of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA 1948 Sofia win, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, with an average first-half record of 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Cherno More have also played cautiously before half-time, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while in none of their last five matches did both goals occur before the break. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they have averaged 1.0 goal scored and just 0.4 conceded in the second half across their last five appearances, whereas the visitors have conceded as many as 1.8 goals. Overall match form also clearly favors CSKA: the hosts averaged 2.2 points, won 60% of their matches and lost none, while Cherno More average 0.2 points per game and have suffered defeats in 80% of their matches. In addition, CSKA create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.56 compared with 1.06 and an average of 6 shots on target versus 3 for their opponents. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a turnaround from a half-time draw to a CSKA victory.