CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II sit 5th, while Hebar 1918 are only 15th, and the start of the season clearly favors the hosts: they have 1 win and 1 draw, with no defeats. In their last five matches, CSKA have scored 9 goals and won 3 games, conceding just 3, whereas Hebar have scored 5 and conceded 7, losing 3 of their 5 matches. The visitors have lost both league games, concede an average of 2 goals per away match, and have kept no clean sheets. Hebar are capable of creating chances, as shown by their away xG of 1.52, but their defense allows opponents an xG of 1.50 and remains highly vulnerable to conceding. CSKA Sofia II’s superior current attacking form and significantly more solid defense point to a greater likelihood of a home win.

The seasonal indicators are clearly goal-oriented: both teams recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither kept a clean sheet. CSKA Sofia II average 2.0 goals scored but concede 3.0, while Hebar 1918 score 1.0 goal and allow opponents 2.0 goals. The attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.78 for the hosts and 1.52 for the visitors, with average xG against figures of 1.44 and 1.50 respectively. However, caution is warranted due to CSKA’s improved defensive performance in their last 5 matches, during which the team conceded only 0.6 goals per game, while their current BTTS rate stood at 40%. Despite this, Hebar regularly create chances worth 1.47 xG, and their weaker defense, conceding 1.4 goals per match recently, increases the chances of goals at both ends.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as both teams have gone over this line in 100% of their matches so far this season, although the sample size is still limited. CSKA Sofia II have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, while Hebar 1918 have conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period, which supports the expectation of at least two goals scored by the hosts or a combined exchange of goals. The attacking potential is also reflected in the xG figures: the hosts have averaged 1.96 xG, while the visitors have posted 1.47 xG across their last five appearances. At the same time, CSKA have conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, which is why the projected total of 2.65 goals does not offer an equally clear edge on Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is already significantly riskier, especially since Over 2.5 has landed in 60% of CSKA's recent matches and 40% of Hebar's.

CSKA Sofia II are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, winning 60% of their games, while Hebar have won 20% and lost 60%. The hosts led at the break in 40% of those matches, whereas the visitors have not once gone into half-time with the lead and were behind at that stage in 60% of cases. CSKA’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 1.78 compared with Hebar’s 1.52, while the team averages 15 shots to their opponents’ 11. After the break, the hosts have recently scored 1.2 goals per match and conceded just 0.2, while Hebar have averaged 0.8 goals conceded in this period. The most likely outcome therefore remains a CSKA Sofia II lead at half-time followed by a win at full-time (1/1).