CSKA Sofia II vs Marek: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II holds a clear advantage in the table and in attack — hosts are 5th, visitors 16th, and this season CSKA scored 41 goals versus Marek’s 18. At home CSKA averages 13.92 shots per match and records 8.5 shots on target, translating to 2.00 goals per match and 58% clean sheets, while Marek away averages 7.67 shots (5.33 on target) and only 0.5 goals per match with 25% clean sheets. The quality-of-chances differential is confirmed by xG: CSKA has average xG 1.94 per match versus 1.12, while Marek posts xG 1.29 with xG conceded 2.2, indicating the hosts create more clear chances and convert them more efficiently. Efficiency and consistency are further CSKA strengths — conversion rate 14% versus Marek’s 7% and a shutout rate 17% versus 50% (Marek often leaves away matches without scoring); in the last 5 matches CSKA scored 10 goals and Marek 4. Considering shot volume, xG and defensive solidity (0.42 conceded per match for the hosts vs 1.75 for the visitors), I predict a home win; I assign probabilities of 75% for CSKA, 15% for a draw and 10% for Marek.

Statistics indicate a favorable BTTS scenario: CSKA Sofia II has a seasonal BTTS rate of 58% vs. Marek's 33%, and in the last 5 matches both teams record BTTS at 60%. CSKA generates on average 1.9 xG, 13.58 shots and 7.0 shots on target per match, while Marek concedes 2.2 xG to opponents and allows only 7.67 shots (5.33 on target), giving the home side ample scoring opportunities. Marek scores on average only 0.5 goals per match with a seasonal xG of 1.29, indicating clear wastefulness, but in the last 5 games his xG is 1.52 with 0.8 goals average, suggesting a potential end to the inefficiency. CSKA recently concedes on average 1.8 goals per match over the last 5, and the overall numbers (10 scored and 9 conceded in the last 5) show both teams are opening up. Therefore I assign a higher probability to BTTS - Yes at 65% vs. 35% for No.

A model combining seasonal xG and form indicates a high-scoring match: home seasonal xG is 1.90 versus away defensive xG 2.20, yielding 2.05 expected goals for CSKA Sofia II, while away seasonal xG 1.29 versus home defensive xG 1.35 yields 1.32 for Marek. Weighting the seasonal model (sum 3.37) and the last 5 matches (sum xG 2.44) 60/40 produces expected 1.68 goals for the home side and 1.32 for the away, totaling 3.00 goals. Under a Poisson distribution with lambda=3.00 the probability of over 1.5 goals is ~80.1%, over 2.5 is ~57.7% and over 3.5 is ~35.3%, supporting an over bias. Match data further supports this conclusion: seasonal share of matches over 1.5 stands at 67% for both teams, the hosts scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 avg) and recorded 80% over 2.5 in that period, while averaging 13.58 shots and 7.0 on target versus Marek’s 7.67 and 5.33. Consequently I recommend playing the over at the 1.5 line as the strongest and safest signal, with moderate backing for Over 2.5 (~58%).

CSKA Sofia II has a clear offensive advantage: xG 1.90 versus Marek’s 1.29, averaging 13.58 shots and 7.0 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 7.67/5.33, while Marek concedes a high xG against of 2.20, indicating weaker defense. In the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of games and score on average 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.4 for the visitors; the average half-time goals in those five matches are 2.2 for the hosts against 1.0 for Marek. Seasonally Marek are frequently trailing at the break (trailing at the break in 58% of matches) and concede on average 1.75 goals per game, whereas CSKA in the last five have 60% wins versus 20% for the visitors, which supports maintaining the lead. Therefore the strongest signal is 1/1 (hosts lead at half-time and win full-time), although the seasonal 58% share of half-time draws for the hosts limits confidence in this pick.