CSKA Sofia II vs Yantra 2019: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II possess a clear home advantage: they average 2.13 goals scored and concede only 0.47 per match, with a 67% home win rate, 53% clean sheets and a +25 goal difference at home. The hosts generate more threat — 12.8 shots and 7.87 shots on target per game with a 17% conversion and average xG 1.82; Yantra 2019 away averages 9.86 shots, 4.86 on target, a 14% conversion and xG 1.32, indicating fewer and lower-quality chances. Form over the last 5 matches is balanced: CSKA 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (lwwwd) with 11 scored and 4 conceded, Yantra 3 wins and 2 draws (dwwdw) with 9 scored and 5 conceded; Yantra has slightly higher PPG in the last 5 (2.2 vs 2.0). The hosts’ main weakness is a higher share of scoreless home games (FTS 20% vs Yantra’s 14% away), but CSKA’s advantage is confirmed by lower average GA (0.47 vs 0.86) and a greater number of shots on target (7.87 vs 4.86). Based on these figures I forecast a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because both teams rarely finish scoreless this season: the home side failed to score in 21% of matches (i.e. they score in 79%), while the away side failed to score in 14% (i.e. they score in 86%), which via a simple multiplicative model yields roughly a 68% probability of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches the visitors have BTTS at 80% and the hosts at 40%, with average goals 2.2 for the home team and 1.8 for the away team, indicating increased offensive activity from both sides. The hosts create more chances (on average 7.07 shots on target and 11.57 total shots with xG 1.65), while the visitors have xG 1.32 and higher finishing efficiency (conversion 14% vs 12%), so both sides have realistic arguments to score. The counterargument is the league’s and hosts’ defensive profile: the league clean sheet rate is 66%, the hosts have 50% clean sheets, and the hosts’ seasonal BTTS is only 36%, which reduces BTTS likelihood, but overall the offensive signals are stronger and I lean toward Yes (68% vs 32%).

Both teams have similar offensive metrics: CSKA Sofia II has xG_for 1.65 and averages 1.43 goals per match, Yantra 2019 has xG_for 1.32 and also averages 1.43 goals. Combining the attack xG with the opponent’s defensive xG yields approximately 1.48 expected goals for the home side and 1.32 for the away side, totaling ~2.80 goals. With a total expected goals of 2.80, the probability of 0–1 goals is roughly 23%, hence Over 1.5 at ~77%; Over 2.5 is about 53%, and Over 3.5 about 31%. Seasonal indicators confirm this direction: Over 1.5 occurred in 64% of CSKA’s matches and 57% of Yantra’s matches, while Over 2.5 appears in only 43% of both teams’ games. Based on this, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (higher expected goals 2.80 and historical 64%/57% for Over 1.5).

Home teams more often lead at the break: they led in 6 matches (43%) and score on average 0.71 goals in the first half versus Yantra’s 0.50; their overall xG is 1.65 versus the visitors’ 1.32, confirming an advantage in chance creation. Nevertheless Yantra 2019 dominate after the break — the visitors score on average 0.93 goals in the second half and concede only 0.07, and they win the second half in 71% of cases (averaging 2.43 points in second halves versus the home side’s 1.71). Over the full match Yantra also has a higher win rate, 57% versus CSKA’s 50%, and better shooting efficiency (conversion 14% vs 12%), indicating greater visitor effectiveness over the longer game. Combining these signals — the home advantage at half-time (43%) and Yantra’s second-half strength (71% second-half wins and 0.93 goals on average) — I assigned the highest probability to the 1/2 scenario (24%), i.e. the home side leading at half-time and the visitors winning at full-time.