CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

Levski are top of the table with a clearly superior season record: 22 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses and 63 goals scored versus CSKA’s 16 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses and 42 goals. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 7 goals and recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (an average of 2.6 points per game), while the hosts have 8 goals in five matches with 4 wins and 1 loss (an average of 2.4 points). CSKA at home registers higher xG — 2.25 per game — and concedes only 0.57 goals per game; they also average 6.07 shots on target per game and have 43% clean sheets, which indicates strong defensive efficiency at their stadium. Levski away maintain higher possession (65% vs 60%), better shot conversion 12% versus CSKA’s 10%, and have scored 63 goals this season, but their away xG averages 1.96 with 0.86 conceded. Considering Levski’s seasonal advantage in wins and goals scored, but also the difficult conditions for visitors in Sofia, I expect a narrow away victory; I estimate probabilities as: home 32%, draw 28%, away 40%.

CSKA scores on average 2.53 goals and concedes only 0.60 goals per match this season, while Levski scores 1.79 and concedes 0.86, indicating a defensive edge for the hosts. The hosts have 53% clean sheets this season versus 29% for Levski, and the season BTTS rate is 40% for CSKA and 50% for the visitors, so hosts more often finish matches without conceding. In the last 5 home matches CSKA has BTTS 0% (8 scored and 3 conceded goals in 5 matches), while Levski’s last 5 show BTTS 40% and they score on average 1.4 goals, which further indicates CSKA’s defensive stability. xG and shot stats confirm this: CSKA has offensive xG 2.18 vs 1.96 for Levski, 7.13 shots on target vs 5.43 for the visitors and a higher conversion rate 15% vs 12%, meaning the hosts control chances but also don’t allow much. Considering the hosts’ 53% clean sheets, 0% BTTS in their last 5 at home and the league-level clean sheet rate of 70% with BTTS 44%, the absence of both teams scoring is more likely — therefore I assign 70% to 'No' and 30% to 'BTTS - Yes'.

I estimate 1.63 expected goals for CSKA and 1.31 for Levski, giving a total of 2.94 expected goals in this match. This is supported by averages and xG: CSKA at home scores on average 2.53 goals with xG 2.18, Levski away scores 1.79 goals with xG 1.96 (combined xG 4.14). A Poisson model with total λ=2.94 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈ 79%, P(Over 2.5) ≈ 56% and P(Over 3.5) ≈ 34%; additionally, season over percentages are 73% (CSKA) and 64% (Levski) for Over 1.5, and 67% and 57% respectively for Over 2.5. Form over the last 5 matches confirms the offensive trend: CSKA has scored 8 goals (1.6 per match), Levski 7 goals (1.4), with three conceded by each. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 due to the high probability of around 79% and an expected total goals figure close to 3, therefore I recommend the 1.5 line on Over.

CSKA Sofia have a seasonal home scoring average of 2.53 goals versus Levski’s 1.79 and win 87% of matches at home, while Levski have a 64% win rate away, giving the hosts the edge. The hosts led at the break in 7 of 15 matches (47%), and in the last 5 they led in 3 of 5 (60%), whereas the visitors led at half-time in only 4 matches overall (29%) and not at all in their last 5 (0%), so the probability favors the home side taking the lead before the break. CSKA average 0.8 goals scored by half-time and concede only 0.07, while Levski have 0.64 scored and 0.43 conceded by half-time; the low number of first-half goals conceded reinforces the scenario of the hosts leading. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 2.18 versus the visitors’ 1.96, average shots on target 7.13 versus 5.43 and conversion rate 15% vs 12%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and securing the win. Therefore the most likely scenario is CSKA leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assigned it 50%, leaving 20% for X/1 and 17% for X/X, with the remainder distributed across less likely variants.