CSM Satu Mare vs Viitorul Şelimbăr: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): CSM Satu Mare have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus just 3 for Viitorul Şelimbăr and average 1.8 points per match in that period compared to the visitors' 1.0. At home the hosts score 1.36 goals on average with an xG of 1.45 and have a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 7%), while the visitors score 0.77 goals away with an xG of 1.38, indicating greater efficiency from the hosts with fewer chances. The hosts’ defense, however, looks weak on paper, conceding 2.36 goals per home match versus an xG against of 1.46, whereas the visitors concede 1.54 goals away with an xG against of 1.61, suggesting CSM concede more than the quality of chances implies. Additionally, CSM less frequently finish matches goalless (18% vs 46% for the visitors) and maintain higher possession (53% vs 46%), which, combined with better conversion, gives them an advantage in creating and exploiting opportunities despite the risk of an open game. Considering the above (10 goals vs 3 in the last 5, conversion 12% vs 7%, 1.8 vs 1.0 points in the last 5), I assign a 60% probability to a home win, 20% to a draw and 20% to an away win.

I select BTTS - Yes as more likely: CSM Satu Mare has a home BTTS rate of 64% versus Viitorul’s 46%, while the league average is 48%. The home side averages 1.64 goals for and 1.27 conceded, whereas the visitors score only 0.77 and concede 1.54, indicating Satu Mare will have the attacking edge and Viitorul are prone to conceding. xG analysis corroborates this — home xG is 1.49 versus opponents’ xG against the visitors 1.61, and the visitors’ xG is 1.38 versus opponents’ xG against the hosts 1.42; additionally the home shot conversion is 14% compared to 7% for the visitors. In the last 5 matches the hosts have BTTS 60% with an average 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, while the visitors have 40% with 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded; low clean sheet rates of 18% and 23% also increase the probability of both teams scoring. On this basis I estimate BTTS at approximately 62% for Yes and 38% for No, because the combination of a 64% home BTTS, higher home productivity and visitors’ susceptibility to conceding provides a stronger signal for Both Teams To Score.

CSM Satu Mare scores on average 1.64 goals per match (xG 1.49) and in the last 5 games averages 2.0 goals (xG 1.59), while Viitorul Şelimbăr averages 0.77 goals (xG 1.38) and only 0.6 goals in the last 5. The away defense concedes 1.54 goals on average (xG against 1.61), and the home side concedes 1.27 (xG against 1.42); accounting for form and xG values I estimated 1.48 expected goals for the home team and 1.39 for the away team (total 2.87). The hosts have a higher shot conversion rate 14% versus the opponents' 7%, and seasonally 91% of their matches finish over 1.5 goals, while the visitors have 46% such matches, which increases the likelihood of goals. A Poisson model on a total of 2.87 yields roughly a 78% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 55% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 32% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line; Over 2.5 is moderately likely, and Over 3.5 is too risky.

Home teams led at the break in 6 of 11 matches (55%), while visitors were ahead in only 2 of 13 (15%), which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Home teams score on average 1.00 goal by half-time versus 0.46 for away teams and concede 0.36 compared to 0.62 for opponents, and in the second half they score 0.64 on average versus 0.31 for visitors, so they have an advantage in both the first and second halves. Over full matches home teams average 1.55 points per game and win 45% of matches, whereas visitors average 0.54 points and only 8% wins; additionally, in the last 5 matches home teams won 60% of games versus 20% for away teams, which increases the likelihood of holding the lead. On top of that, home teams register more shots (12.0 vs 10.38) and more shots on target (4.55 vs 3.54), have higher conversion (14% vs 7%) and higher xG (1.49 vs 1.38), therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time home lead and victory (1/1).