Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera: match statistics

Cúcuta Deportivo have a clear home advantage: they average 1.3 goals at home, while Alianza Petrolera score only 0.6 goals per away match and fail to find the net in 60% of their away fixtures. The visitors have lost 60% of their away matches, with an away goal difference of -12 and an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game. The hosts are also in poor form, without a win in their last 5 matches and having scored just 4 goals, but Alianza have been even worse, losing 4 of their last 5 matches. Cúcuta create chances worth 1.01 xG per home match, while opponents allow 1.44 xG away from home, which supports a potential breakthrough for the hosts. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Cúcuta have drawn 40% of their home matches, but the hosts’ greater attacking consistency points towards result 1.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, well above the league average of 53%. During this period, Cúcuta conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Alianza Petrolera conceded 1.8, creating favorable conditions for a goal exchange despite weaker finishing. The hosts have recently generated an xG of 1.38, while the visitors have posted 1.43, meaning both sides are creating chances at a level exceeding one expected goal. Over the season, Alianza have failed to score in as many as 60% of their matches, so this is not a particularly strong pick. However, their opponents have kept clean sheets in only 25% of matches, and the current defensive form of both teams shifts the assessment slightly toward BTTS - Yes.

The seasonal profile of both teams points to a moderate goal total: 67% of Cúcuta’s matches and 60% of Alianza’s ended with Under 2.5 goals. The signal for a lower-scoring game is even clearer on the 3.5 line, which held in 83% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ games. Cúcuta score an average of 0.92 goals, while Alianza manage just 0.60, with shot conversion rates of 8% and 6%, respectively, limiting the risk of a very high-scoring outcome. The xG models are slightly higher, as the hosts create an average of 1.25 xG and the visitors 1.02 xG, but the combined projection of 2.45 goals still clearly supports Under 3.5. The last five matches produced goals from both teams in 80% of games for each side, but this does not change the fact that exceeding four goals would require considerably greater finishing efficiency than their season averages.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Cúcuta have been level after 45 minutes in 42% of their matches, compared with 40% for Alianza; over the last five matches, the hosts’ draw rate has risen to 60%. Cúcuta nevertheless have a clearer potential to secure the full-time win: they average 1.25 xG compared with Alianza’s 1.02, while the hosts’ opponents concede an average of 1.44 xG. Alianza lose 60% of their matches this season, score only 0.60 goals per game, and fail to score in as many as 60% of their appearances. Cúcuta’s advantage is tempered by their poor current form, but the visitors’ defense concedes an average of 1.80 goals. Therefore, after a cautious first half, the most logical HT/FT scenario remains a draw and a home win (X/1).