Cúcuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics

Cúcuta Deportivo have a clearly stronger recent run of form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, with 2 wins and a draw, while Deportivo Pasto have managed just 1 point and lost 4 games. The visitors scored only 2 goals during this period, which significantly weakens their chances, although over the full away-season sample they create slightly more opportunities, with an average xG of 1.23 compared with the hosts’ 1.02. Cúcuta concede an average of 1.27 goals per home match, whereas Pasto concede as many as 1.85 away from home, and the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of such fixtures. The hosts have won 36% of their home matches and drawn a further 36%, while Pasto have lost 46% of their away games. Home advantage and Pasto’s very poor recent attacking efficiency point towards a narrow Cúcuta victory, although the draw remains a significant risk.

The scenario in which at least one team fails to score is primarily supported by Deportivo Pasto’s current attacking form: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Cúcuta have also been unimpressive in attack, recording 4 goals in their last five appearances, while BTTS occurred for both teams in only 40% of matches during this period. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their season matches, while Pasto have failed to score in 31% of their games, increasing the risk of another scoreless outing for the visitors. Although Pasto have a season BTTS rate of 62% and Cúcuta concede an average of 1.13 goals, their recent scoring records clearly reduce the weight of these statistics. In addition, the average xG from the last five matches stands at just 1.17 for Cúcuta and 1.16 for Pasto, making BTTS - No / No Goal the most likely outcome, with at least one side expected to fail to score.

Recent form clearly limits the goal-scoring potential: Cúcuta have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Deportivo Pasto have scored only 2, equating to 0.8 and 0.4 goals per game, respectively. In the same sample, both teams went Over 2.5 goals in just 20% of matches, despite recording average xG figures of 1.17 and 1.16. Cúcuta have not played a single match above 3.5 goals this season, while such an outcome occurred in 38% of Pasto’s matches, meaning the hosts’ profile strongly supports a low-scoring game. The estimated 2.35 goals is also supported by Cúcuta’s solid defense, which concedes an average of 1.13 goals; therefore, Under 3.5 offers the strongest edge.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Cúcuta win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 53% of their matches this season and in 60% of their last five fixtures. Recently, Cúcuta have scored only 0.2 goals per match before half-time, but have also conceded just 0.2, strongly supporting the expectation of a cautious, evenly balanced opening. Deportivo Pasto have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five appearances, conceding an average of 1.0 goal in that period, and have not won any of those matches. After the break, the hosts should be able to exploit their opponents' weaknesses: Pasto are currently scoring only 0.4 goals per match and conceding 1.6, while their record over the last five rounds stands at 0 points per game compared with Cúcuta's 1.4. A further argument is the visitors' defensive record, with Pasto conceding an average of 1.85 goals per match across the season, whereas Cúcuta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.