Čukarički vs IMT Novi Beograd: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd is the favorite for this fixture: they sit 3rd in the table versus Čukarički’s 12th, and in the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 1.8 points per game compared to the hosts’ 0.6. In attack IMT have 4 goals in their last five matches (0.8 per game), while Čukarički have scored 3 goals (0.6 per game). Defensively the gap is clear — the visitors conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches (0.2 per game), while the hosts conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game). In form runs IMT record 2 wins and 3 draws (0 losses), whereas Čukarički have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, indicating greater points stability for the visitors. Based on this I predict a away win, although the hosts’ three draws in their last five matches mean a draw remains a realistic outcome.

In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 40% for Čukarički and 20% for IMT, which is below the league average of 50%, so the initial signal points to a lower frequency of both teams scoring. The home side averages 0.6 goals in those 5 matches with xG 0.94, while IMT’s defense concedes only 0.2 goals per match; this limits Čukarički’s realistic chances to score. IMT, meanwhile, scores 0.8 goals per match with xG 1.28, and Čukarički concedes 1.0 goal on average in the last 5, which suggests it is more likely that only the visitors will score. Additionally, xG against the hosts is as high as 2.32, showing the hosts allow quality chances, but their own efficiency (0.6 goals) and the low BTTS rate for the away team (20%) shift the balance toward a No Goal/clean sheet expected scenario. On this basis I assign 70% to "No" and 30% to "Yes", because the asymmetry in goals scored and conceded (0.6 vs 0.2 and 0.8 vs 1.0) together with low BTTS rates more strongly support both teams not scoring.

xG and form analysis over the last 5 matches yields expected goals of 1.01 for Čukarički and 1.80 for IMT, totaling 2.81 goals. IMT generates more chances (last5 xG_for 1.28 vs hosts' 0.94), while Čukarički shows a high expected concessions rate (last5 xG_against 2.32), increasing the likelihood of away goals. In the last 5 fixtures Čukarički scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 5 (1.0), whereas IMT scored 4 (0.8) and conceded only 1 (0.2), confirming IMT’s offensive edge. A Poisson model with lambda=2.81 gives P(Over 1.5) ≈77%, P(Over 2.5) ≈53% and P(Over 3.5) ≈31%, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable play.

Analysis of the last 5 matches indicates an advantage for IMT: the visitors led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%) and won 2 of 5 (40%), while Čukarički have not won any of their last five (0% wins) and recorded 3 draws (60%). Offensively and defensively IMT also look superior — they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per match, whereas the hosts average 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded (0.6 vs 1.0). At half-time the difference is pronounced: the visitors average 2.2 points at the break versus 0.6 for the hosts, and Čukarički matches see an average of 1.2 first-half goals compared to 0.6 in IMT games. Considering that IMT frequently leads at the break (60%), but full-time draws occur frequently for both teams (60% draws in the last 5 matches for each side), the strongest signal is the scenario: visitors lead at half-time, match finishes level (2/X).