Čukarički vs Radnik Surdulica: match statistics

The forecast favors the home win (Čukarički). At home Čukarički average 1.73 goals per match with 12.13 shots and 4.6 on target, converting at 14%, whereas Radnik away averages only 0.93 goals with 9.87 shots and 3.27 on target and a 9% conversion. The gap in chance quality is supported by xG — 1.45 xG for Čukarički at home versus 1.19 xG for Radnik away — while defensive numbers are similar (goals conceded 1.33 for hosts vs 1.27 for visitors; xG against 1.52 vs 1.56). Over the last 5 matches both sides average 1.2 points per game, with Radnik scoring 7 goals and Čukarički 4, indicating comparable short-term form. Considering the higher home win rate (47% vs 20%), positive home goal difference (+6 vs -5) and a very low percentage of home matches without a goal (7% vs 53%), I assess probabilities as: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

I project BTTS (Both Teams To Score) as the more likely outcome in this match. Čukarički at home averages 1.53 goals per game with an xG of 1.79 from 14.6 shots and 4.8 on target, and their home matches have ended BTTS in 60% of cases. Radnik Surdulica has scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 avg) and recorded BTTS in 80% of those games, although seasonally they score 0.93 goals away on average and have 40% BTTS on the road. Both teams concede goals over the season (Čukarički 1.07, Radnik 1.27) and xG against shows 1.2 for the home side and 1.56 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the home BTTS rate of 60% for the hosts, 80% BTTS for the visitors in the last 5, and a league-wide BTTS level of 53%, I assign 65% to 'Yes' vs 35% to 'No'.

Based on xG and statistics I expect approximately 2.88 total expected goals: 1.68 for Čukarički and 1.20 for Radnik Surdulica. Both teams have a high share of matches above 1.5 goals this season — home side 73%, away side 67% — which, combined with total xG = 2.88, yields an estimated probability for Over 1.5 of about 78%. The 2.5 line has moderate support: seasonally Čukarički records Over 2.5 in 53% of matches, Radnik in 27%, and a Poisson model with combined xG 2.88 rates Over 2.5 at ~55%, while Over 3.5 is less likely (~33%). Čukarički averages 14.6 shots with 4.8 on target (conversion ~11%), Radnik 9.87 shots with 3.27 on target (conversion ~9%), which strengthens the hosts’ goal potential. Consequently the strongest and safest signal is backing Over at 1.5 (probability ~78%).

Čukarički are clear favorites: they have a 47% win rate versus Radnik’s 20%, average 1.67 points per match versus 0.93, xG 1.79 versus 1.19 and on average 14.6 shots versus 9.87, which confirms superiority in chance creation. A draw at the break is common and usually low-scoring: the hosts were level at half-time in 33% of matches (guests 40%), the hosts average 0.87 goals by half-time vs 0.53 for Radnik, and the hosts kept a clean sheet at the break in 67% of games with both teams scoring by half-time in only 13% of cases. After the break Čukarički show a clear advantage — they score on average 0.67 goals after the break, have accumulated 24 points in second halves (an average of 1.6 points) and scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 1 for Radnik, indicating decisive late goals. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).