Cumbayá vs 9 de Octubre: match statistics

Cumbayá holds an offensive edge at home: on average 1.5 goals per match, 2.57 shots on target and a 20% conversion rate, while 9 de Octubre averages 0.43 goals away with 1.5 shots on target and only 4% conversion. The hosts are in better form — 2.0 points on average in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), compared to 9 de Octubre's 1.4 points in their last 5 (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses). At the same time the visitors display very solid away defense: only 0.29 goals conceded per match and 71% clean sheets, whereas Cumbayá concedes 1.13 at home with 25% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood of a draw or low-scoring outcome. Both teams’ xG are comparable (Cumbayá xG 1.02 vs 9 de Octubre 0.93; xG against 0.87 vs 0.83), but the low percentage of goalless matches for the hosts (13% vs 57% for the visitors) and superior conversion favor Cumbayá. Consequently I forecast a Cumbayá win, estimating probabilities at approximately 50% for the home side, 30% for a draw and 20% for an away win.

I back 'No' (both teams not to score). 9 de Octubre averages only 0.43 goals per game this season and has kept a clean sheet in 71% of its matches; their BTTS rate is just 14%. Cumbayá has the stronger attack — 1.78 goals per game, xG 1.44 and 4.33 shots on target on average — but in the last 5 home matches the hosts recorded only 20% BTTS and conceded just 0.4 goals on average, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. The conversion gap also favors the hosts: Cumbayá’s conversion rate is 15% versus 4% for 9 de Octubre, and 1.5 shots on target on average for the visitors indicate 9 de Octubre rarely creates and finishes chances. At league level BTTS occurs in 40% of matches with an average goals tally of 1.95, and comparing seasonal BTTS shares 56% (Cumbayá) vs 14% (9 de Octubre) together with 71% clean sheets for the away side favors a scenario where only one team scores. Although 9 de Octubre has 60% BTTS and 1.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, I assign 70% to 'No' and 30% to 'Yes' as the most justified forecast.

Based on the teams' average xG I estimate 1.14 expected goals for Cumbayá and 0.89 for 9 de Octubre, totaling 2.03 goals. Cumbayá scores 1.78 goals at home on average, has an xG of 1.44 and 4.33 shots on target; 67% of their home matches finished over 1.5 goals. 9 de Octubre average only 0.43 goals on the road and keep a clean sheet in 71% of away games, and their shot conversion is just 4%, limiting their ability to lift the total. A Poisson model with λ=2.03 gives roughly a 60% chance for Over 1.5, about 33% for Over 2.5 and around 15% for Over 3.5. Given Cumbayá’s higher xG and conversion (15% vs 4%) and the hosts’ last 5 matches with 7 scored and only 2 conceded, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over).

Cumbayá has a clear offensive advantage: they average 1.78 goals per match and 1.0 goals by half-time (16 first-half goals this season), while 9 de Octubre average 0.43 goals per match and 0.0 by half-time (0 first-half goals). The difference is confirmed by xG and shots — home xG 1.44 versus away 0.93, shots on target 4.33 versus 1.5 and conversion 15% versus 4%, indicating greater chance creation and efficiency from Cumbayá. The hosts led at the break in 44% of matches (4 instances), whereas 9 de Octubre did not lead at half-time (0%), so the strongest signal is the hosts leading after 45 minutes. At full-time Cumbayá won 67% of games versus 29% for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches the hosts had a 60% win rate versus 20% for the visitors, which further supports maintaining the lead and securing the win. Therefore I assess the HT/FT pick 1/1 as the most likely outcome.