Cumbayá vs Cuniburo: match statistics

Cumbayá has a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 16 shots per match, of which 3 are on target, translating to an average of 2 goals per match and xG of 1.68. Despite this, the hosts have yet to win at home — 0% wins and 100% of home matches ending in draws, which increases the probability of a shared point outcome. Cuniburo on the road shows practically zero offensive output: 0 shots, 0 goals scored, xG 0.27 and 100% of away matches without a goal. Defensively the visitors perform slightly better (conceding an average of 1 goal away versus the hosts conceding 2 at home), but the gap in quality of created chances (xG 1.68 vs 0.27) favors Cumbayá. Considering these figures and similar form over the last five matches (average 1 point per match with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), I assess the probabilities as: home win 55%, draw 30%, away win 15%.

Indicators from the last 5 matches strongly point to BTTS: Cumbayá had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 fixtures (4/5), and Cuniburo in 40% (2/5), giving an average of 60%. In those 5 matches Cumbayá conceded an average of 1.8 goals (9 conceded), while Cuniburo scored an average of 1.0 goal (5 scored), so there is a real exchange of goals. Recent attacking xG are 1.11 for Cumbayá and 1.02 for Cuniburo, with xG against at 1.46 for Cumbayá versus 0.95 for Cuniburo, suggesting Cumbayá creates chances but is also vulnerable to conceding. Seasonal data are contradictory (Cumbayá has season 0% BTTS and 100% clean sheets, while the league has 33% BTTS and 75% matches with a clean sheet), therefore I weighted the form from the last 5 matches more heavily. As a result I pick BTTS "Yes" with a probability of 62% versus 38% for "No", because the 60% from the last 5 and Cumbayá's negative defensive indicators (1.8 goals conceded on average) increase the likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet.

I estimate expected goals at 1.03 for Cumbayá and 1.24 for Cuniburo (total 2.27), calculated as the average of attack and defense from the last 5 matches: xG_for – Cumbayá 1.11, Cuniburo 1.02; xG_against – Cumbayá 1.46, Cuniburo 0.95. Cumbayá averages 11 shots and 5 on target with a season xG of 1.31, while Cuniburo has a season xG of 0.27 and 0 shots, indicating a home advantage in chance creation, but the hosts have conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per game). A Poisson model with λ=2.27 yields P(≥2)≈66%, P(≥3)≈40% and P(≥4)≈19%, therefore over1.5≈66%, over2.5≈40% and over3.5≈19%. Given the low expected total of 2.27 goals and only ~19% probability of 4+ goals, the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (approx. 81% chance of fewer than 4 goals). Additionally, the league average is 2.33 goals per match, so the projected 2.27 is consistent and supports a conservative bet on Under 3.5.

Cumbayá clearly dominates: at home they average 3.0 goals and concede none (seasonScoredAVG_home 3.0, seasonConcededAVG_home 0.0), with a 100.0% home win rate, while Cuniburo score 0.0 goals away and concede on average 1.0 (seasonScoredAVG_away 0.0, seasonConcededAVG_away 1.0, winPercentage_away 0.0). At half-time the hosts consistently lead — leadingAtHTPercentage_home 100.0 and Cumbayá’s average goals by half-time is 1.0, whereas Cuniburo have 0.0 first-half goals (scoredAVGHT_home 1.0, scoredAVGHT_away 0.0). The quality gap is evident in xG and shots: the home xG is 1.31 versus 0.27 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 5.0 vs 0.0 (xg_for_avg_home 1.31, xg_for_avg_away 0.27, shotsOnTargetAVG_home 5.0, shotsOnTargetAVG_away 0.0). Cumbayá also has strong second halves — on average 2.0 goals in the second half at home and 100.0% second-half win rate (AVG_2hg_home 2.0, wins_2hg_percentage_home 100.0), which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead through full-time. Considering the 1.31 vs 0.27 xG, 5.0 vs 0.0 shots on target, 3.0 vs 0.0 home goals average and the fact that the hosts have led at half-time and won at home in 100% of cases, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and Cumbayá to win).