Cumbayá vs Gualaceo SC: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Cumbayá averages 1.5 goals per home match and has an xG of 1.03, and at home they have never failed to score (0% of matches without a goal). Gualaceo away averages 0 goals per match and failed to score in 100% of their away games, concedes on average 2.0 goals away and has a higher xG of 1.47 and more shots (10 total and 6 on target), but their away conversion rate is 0%. Both teams have been vulnerable defensively in recent weeks — Cumbayá conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches and Gualaceo conceded 11 — which suggests a higher probability of an open game despite the visitors’ lack of finishing on the road. Cumbayá has yet to win at home (0 wins), recording 2 draws and 1 loss, and over the last 5 matches overall they average 1.0 point per game (form 'wldld'), while Gualaceo averages 0.6 points per game in their last 5 (form 'llllw'), giving the hosts a slight points advantage. Therefore I estimate a 55% chance of Cumbayá victory, 30% for a draw and 15% for a Gualaceo win, because the home side’s effectiveness at home (1.5 goals and 18% shot conversion) and the visitors’ failure to score away support the '1' outcome.

I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely, with an estimated probability of 65% vs 35% for No Goal. Both sides generate genuine scoring opportunities: xG is 1.57 for Cumbayá and 1.47 for Gualaceo, and Gualaceo averages 6.0 shots on target versus 3.5 for Cumbayá, supporting goals from both teams. Recent form over the last 5 matches is divergent — Cumbayá had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 (5/5) and scores on average 1.4 goals, while Gualaceo only 20% (1/5) and 0.6 goals in the last 5, yet Gualaceo has higher last5 xG at 1.28 versus Cumbayá’s 0.93, indicating they create chances despite a low season output (seasonal goal averages 1.0 vs 0.0). Seasonal indicators warrant caution — Cumbayá has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches this season, and the league records 39% BTTS and 78% of matches with a clean sheet — however the combination of xG ~1.5 and 6.0 shots on target for Gualaceo, plus Cumbayá’s recent defensive form (conceding on average 2.0 goals in 5 matches), tilts the balance toward Both Teams To Score.

I calculated expected goals as the average of the team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s xG against: Cumbayá has offensive xG 1.57 and xG against Gualaceo 0.95, yielding about 1.26 expected home goals; similarly Gualaceo (offensive xG 1.47 and xG against Cumbayá 0.96) yields about 1.22, total = 2.48. With a combined xG = 2.48, a Poisson distribution indicates ~71% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~45% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and ~24% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). In the last 5 matches Cumbayá scored 7 and conceded 10 (avg 3.4 goals per match), while Gualaceo scored 3 and conceded 11 (avg 2.8), and the Over 2.5 rate in the last 5 is 80% for the home side and 40% for the away side, which further supports the minimum-2-goals scenario. Shot statistics show the away team attempts more shots and shots on target (10 vs 8 attempts, 6.0 vs 3.5 shots on target), but Cumbayá has a higher conversion rate of 13%, increasing their efficiency with fewer chances. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: over) with an estimated probability of ~71%, while Over 2.5 (~45%) and Over 3.5 (~24%) appear less certain.

Statistics favor Cumbayá: the season average of home goals is 1.0 versus 0.0 for Gualaceo; hosts average 1.5 points per home match versus 0.0 points for visitors, and Cumbayá has won 50% of matches while Gualaceo has no wins (0%). At Half-Time the signal is clear — the hosts led at the break in 50% of this season’s matches and in 60% of the last 5, whereas the visitors were trailing at the break in 100% of the season and in 60% of the last 5; the last 5 matches show half-time goal averages of 1.0 for Cumbayá vs 0.2 for Gualaceo. Despite similar xG (1.57 vs 1.47), Gualaceo registers more shots on target (6.0 vs 3.5) but has a 0% conversion rate and has not scored this season, producing chances without effectiveness. The visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while the hosts have a 50% clean-sheet rate this season, reinforcing the case for a Full-Time win for the home side. Consequently the most likely scenario is Cumbayá leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (1/1); I assign a 57% probability to this scenario, allowing for a draw at Half-Time/Full-Time (X/X) at 20% and low chances for a turnaround.