Dalian Huayi vs Hebei Kungfu: match statistics

Dalian Huayi hold the offensive edge: they have scored 10 goals this season versus Hebei’s 3, and at home they average 1.25 goals with an xG of 1.55; Hebei record only 0.25 goals away with xG 0.94. The hosts register 12.5 shots per game, 4.5 on target, while the visitors average just 8.25 shots and 2 on target; conversion rate is 10% for Dalian versus 3% for Hebei, increasing the hosts’ probability of converting chances. Over the last 5 matches Dalian have scored 3 goals and sit at 0-2-3 (0.4 points per game), while Hebei have 0 goals in their last 5 with the same 0-2-3 record (0.4 ppg), underscoring poor form for both sides. Defensively the differences are marginal — Dalian concede 1.5 goals on average at home, Hebei 1.25 away — but crucially the hosts have scored in every home match (0% matches without a goal), whereas Hebei have failed to score in 75% of away games, significantly limiting the visitors’ prospects. Considering the xG advantage (1.55 vs 0.94), higher shot volume and efficiency, I give Dalian the greater likelihood of winning, although the hosts’ high share of home draws (75%) keeps the risk of a point split elevated.

Both teams show low BTTS rates: Dalian Huayi 20% and Hebei Kungfu 25%, both well below the league average BTTS 46% (differences of 26 and 21 percentage points respectively). Seasonal goals per game are 0.4 for Dalian and 0.25 for Hebei — a combined 0.65 goals per match versus the league average 2.3, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. In Hebei’s last 5 matches they have failed to score (0 goals, 0.0 per match), while Dalian have only 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per match), making a No Goal scenario more probable. Offensive metrics are also weak — shots on target 3.2 (Dalian) vs 2.0 (Hebei), shots overall 11.2 vs 8.25 and low conversion 4% vs 3%; despite xG 1.22 (Dalian) vs 0.94 (Hebei), both teams rarely convert chances, as seen in season goals scored 10 (Dalian) vs 3 (Hebei). Considering Hebei’s 5-game goalless run, low seasonal BTTS 20% and 25%, and a high league clean sheet share 62%, I recommend BTTS = No and estimate probabilities of 80% for 'no' and 20% for 'yes'.

I choose Under 3.5 as the best option because both teams this season have 0% of matches with over 3.5 goals and 100% of matches under 3.5 (0%/0% and 100%/100%). xG analysis shows Dalian with xG 1.22, Hebei 0.94, and xG conceded 1.14 for Dalian and 1.36 for Hebei; averaging yields an expected 1.29 goals for the home side and 1.04 for the away side, total 2.33. A Poisson model based on total xG=2.33 gives roughly a 67.6% chance of over 1.5 goals and about 41.2% for over 2.5, but low shot conversion rates (4% home, 3% away) and low seasonal goal averages (0.4 for home and 0.25 for away) reduce the real probability of overs. Considering the last 5 matches (Dalian scored 3 goals, Hebei 0) and season over2.5 rates (40% home vs 25% away), I assign probabilities: over1.5 ~61% (under 39%), over2.5 ~39% (under 61%) and over3.5 ~15% (under 85%). In summary, expected goals 1.29–1.04 (total 2.33) and season 0% occurrences >3.5 favor Under 3.5 as the safest line.

I am backing a Half-Time/Full-Time draw/home win (X/1) because Hebei records a half-time draw in 100% of their away matches, while Dalian averages only 0.2 goals scored and concedes 0.8 at half-time (scoredAVGHT_home 0.2; concededAVGHT_home 0.8), which favors a HT draw. In the second half the home side’s advantage is clearer: the home xG is 1.22 versus 0.94 for the visitors, the hosts average 11.2 shots (3.2 on target) compared to Hebei’s 8.25 (2.0 on target), and the conversion rate is 4% vs 3%. The visitors concede an average of 1.25 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away 1.25) versus 0.6 conceded by the hosts, so Dalian’s increased second-half activity has a real chance to produce a goal. Points and win rates also favor the hosts: 0.6 points per match versus 0.25 for the visitors and a 20% win rate for the home side vs 0% for Hebei, which is why X/1 was assigned the highest probability.