Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: match statistics

Beijing Guoan arrive as the second-placed team and are in excellent form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning 4 times and scoring 16 goals. Over the same period, Dalian Zhixing recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring just 5 goals. However, the hosts are very strong at home, winning 73% of their matches, averaging 1.82 goals per game and avoiding defeat in every match in which they scored. The visitors have a slightly higher away scoring average of 1.91 goals, superior shot conversion at 15% compared with 11%, and significantly better possession numbers—58% versus Dalian’s 48%. Both teams concede an average of 1.27 goals on their own ground, so the hosts should pose a threat, but Beijing Guoan’s current efficiency and form point to an away win.

Both teams have a high seasonal rate of matches in which both sides scored: Dalian Zhixing 69% and Beijing Guoan 64%, compared with the league average of 63%. The hosts score an average of 2.08 goals per match, while the visitors average 1.91, with xG figures of 1.95 and 1.55 respectively. Dalian concede an average of 1.38 goals, while Beijing concede 1.27, meaning both sides regularly allow their opponents space to score. In their last five matches, Beijing scored as many as 16 goals, or 3.2 per game, while Dalian, despite their lower attacking output, have a high 1.73 xG against them. In addition, neither team is particularly prone to failing to score, as this occurred in 0% of Dalian’s matches and only 9% of Beijing’s. These trends strongly support BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The seasonal profile of both teams clearly points toward goals: Dalian average 2.08 goals scored per game, while Beijing average 1.91, with the league average standing at 3.11 goals per match. The 1.5 line has been covered in 92% of Dalian’s matches and 82% of Beijing’s, while the hosts have scored at least once in every match this season. Beijing are in excellent attacking form, having scored 16 goals in their last five appearances—3.2 per game—with 100% of their matches during this period going Over 2.5 goals. The hosts have a weaker recent record, averaging just 1.0 goal per game with an xG of 0.96, so Over 2.5 carries more risk than the visitors’ form might suggest. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, supported by the high consistency of goalscoring and a combined projected total of 3.16 goals.

Beijing Guoan are in clearly better form: they have won four of their last five matches, remain unbeaten, and have averaged 3.2 goals, while Dalian have scored just 1.0 goal per game. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches, averaging 1.4 first-half goals, whereas the hosts recorded just 0.6 goals in the first half over the same period. Dalian’s season-long figures are solid, particularly their 1.95 xG and just 1.06 xG conceded per match, but Beijing’s current attack remains highly effective, averaging 1.8 second-half goals across their last five outings. The scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and going on to win therefore has the strongest support, although Beijing’s high 55% season-long rate of half-time draws also increases the chances of the X/2 outcome.