Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun: match statistics

Dalian Zhixing possesses a clear home advantage: they have won all home matches (100% win rate), keep 67% clean sheets, average 2.00 goals scored and concede only 0.33 goals per match. In their last 5 fixtures the hosts won 5 of 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2, which yields an average of 3 points per match over that span. Yunnan Yukun creates more chances on the road (average xG 1.72 and 5.5 shots on target) and records 1.75 goals per away match, but their defense is vulnerable — they concede 2.25 goals per away game on average, have 0% clean sheets and a 75% loss rate away from home. Considering the higher home efficiency (conversion 14% vs 10% for the visitors) and the large contrast in average goals conceded (0.33 vs 2.25), I expect a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Yunnan Yukun has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches; they scored 14 and conceded 13 goals this season, meaning their matches almost always see goals from both sides. Dalian Zhixing has a seasonal BTTS of 33% and 40% in the last 5 matches, with the last 5 fixtures yielding 5 wins and only 2 conceded goals (0.4 per game), which lowers the risk but does not rule out an away goal. From an xG perspective both teams create chances — Dalian xG for 1.96 versus xG against Yunnan 1.77, and Yunnan xG for 1.72 versus xG against Dalian 1.01 — this suggests both sides have scoring potential. Additionally, average shots on target are 6.0 for Dalian and 5.5 for Yunnan, the league records BTTS in 54% of matches with an average of 2.75 goals per game, and both teams have season Over2.5 at 100%, confirming the offensive nature of the matchup. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 70% and No BTTS at 30%.

The statistics clearly point to a goal-heavy match: Dalian averages 2.33 goals per game, Yunnan 1.75, and both teams have 100% of seasonal matches over 2.5 goals. Combined xG analysis (attacking xG adjusted for opponent defensive xG) yields approximately 1.87 xG for the home side and 1.36 xG for the visitors, a total of 3.23 xG, supporting a minimum-3-goal scenario. In the last 5 matches Dalian scored 9 and conceded 2 (avg. 1.8 scored, 0.4 conceded), while Yunnan scored 10 and conceded 10 (avg. 2.0 and 2.0), demonstrating offensive productivity from both squads. Additionally, Yunnan has 100% of season matches with both teams scoring, and Dalian has 67% of matches over 3.5 goals, producing a mixed but leaning-toward-over profile. Consequently I recommend taking the over on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal: I rate Over 2.5 at ~82% (Under 18%), Over 1.5 at ~98%, and Over 3.5 at ~41%.

The home side holds a clear statistical advantage: Dalian win 67% of matches at home, average 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, and at half-time they record 2.0 goals for and only 0.33 conceded, leading at the break in 67% of cases. The visitors perform worse away — only 25% wins, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, with xG_for 1.72 versus xG_against 1.77, indicating defensive issues. Additionally, the hosts generate more quality (home xG 1.96 vs opponent 1.77), take more shots (18.67 vs 17.0) and have better conversion (13% vs 10%), so the scenario of Dalian leading at half-time and holding the win (1/1) is rated highest at 46%. However, note the visitors have 100% of away matches featuring goals at both ends, so there is a risk of a turnaround after the break — hence I assigned 16% to X/1 and 12% to X/X, while scenarios in which the visitors lead at half-time are rated only 6% in total due to the form gap (hosts 100% wins in the last 5, visitors 40%).