Damash Gilanian vs Be'sat Kermanshah: match statistics

Be'sat Kermanshah sit 10th in the table with 21 goals scored and 21 conceded this season, while Damash Gilanian are 18th with just 12 scored and 35 conceded. Away, the visitors average 6 shots per game and 2.2 on target with a 13% conversion rate and mean xG 0.94; the home side average 5 shots, 1.5 on target, 10% conversion and xG 0.73. Although average xG against for the home team at home is 0.68 versus 1.46 for visitors on the road, Damash still concedes more goals per game at home (1.33) than Be'sat do away (1.08), indicating the visitors are more clinical in converting chances. In the last 5 matches both teams have conceded 7 goals; the hosts average 1.0 point per game (form: D W D L L), the visitors 0.8 ppg (form: L L L W D), so form is similar but the statistical edge favors the visitors. Considering more wins this season (7 vs 1), better average shots on target (2.2 vs 1.5), higher xG and superior conversion (13% vs 10%), I predict a win for the visitors.

Seasonal stats favor No BTTS: Damash has a seasonal BTTS rate of 42% vs Be'sat 25%, while the league average is only 32%. Be'sat scores just 0.58 goals per game this season, whereas Damash concedes 0.67 per game, indicating the visitors struggle to find the net. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games each, but in that period Damash scored 4 and conceded 7 (avg 0.8 scored, 1.4 conceded), and Be'sat scored 6 and conceded 7 (avg 1.2 and 1.4), so a short-term rise in goals is visible but does not override seasonal trends. Additionally, the league has a low average of 1.51 goals per game and a high share of clean sheets (league CS 92%), which supports the scenario that one side (likely Be'sat) will fail to score. Therefore I assess BTTS - No as more likely (62% vs 38%).

A Poisson model based on averages yields expected goals of 1.13 for Damash Gilanian and 0.63 for Be'sat Kermanshah (total 1.76). From that distribution there is roughly a 53% chance of Over 1.5, 26% for Over 2.5 and 10% for Over 3.5. Seasonal data corroborates a low-scoring profile: the home side has 58% of matches over 1.5, the away side 50%, but only 33% of both teams exceed 2.5 goals, and the league averages 1.51 goals per match. In their last 5 fixtures Damash scored 4 and conceded 7, while Be'sat scored 6 and conceded 7, and both teams have 42% clean sheets this season, which jointly indicates no significant offensive edge. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is Under 2.5 (probability ~74%), so I recommend backing the under at the 2.5 line.

Data indicate a home advantage: Damash has a 42% win rate this season versus Be'sat's 17%, and averages 1.17 goals per match compared to the visitors' 0.58. First halves are typically low-scoring — the home side averages 0.3 goals by Half-Time, the visitors only 0.08, and a clean sheet at the break occurs in 70% of home matches and 67% of away matches, so a draw at Half-Time (0-0) is highly likely. After the break Damash holds a clear edge: in the last five matches the home team averages 1.75 points in the second half and win the second half 50% of the time, while the visitors concede an average of 0.75 goals after Half-Time (they conceded in the 46–60 minute window in five matches). Considering the frequent draw at the break (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 40%) and the stronger second-half performance by the home team, the strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time followed by a Damash turnaround to win Full-Time (X/1). Therefore I assign the X/1 scenario the highest probability (22%), followed by 1/1 (21%) and X/X (14%).