DC United vs New England Revolution: match statistics

DC United possess a clear attacking edge at home: they average 1.67 goals scored with an xG of 1.61, while New England Revolution score just 1.00 goal away from home and create chances worth 1.22 xG. The hosts also register more shots, 14.11 per match compared with 10.57, as well as more shots on target, 5.67 versus 3.57. Both defenses are prone to lapses, with DC United conceding 2.11 goals per home game and the visitors 1.86, while New England have kept no clean sheets away from home. DC United’s form is more consistent, as they have avoided defeat in their last five matches, drawing four and winning one, whereas New England have scored only 6 goals during that period. Home advantage and the superior quality of chances created point towards a narrow victory for the hosts, although both teams’ high tendency to draw increases the likelihood of a stalemate.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by DC United’s current form, with both teams scoring in 100% of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. New England Revolution have a weaker recent BTTS record of 40%, but their season-long figure stands at 71%, while the hosts have allowed opponents an average of 1.72 xG over their last five league games. DC United average 1.91 goals at home, whereas New England concede as many as 1.86 away from home, making a home goal highly likely. The visitors have recently created chances worth an average of 1.55 xG per match, while DC United have kept a clean sheet in only 36% of their games, further strengthening the likelihood of New England scoring. Although New England score only 1.0 goal per away game, the combination of high-quality chances created by both sides and the hosts’ defensive form gives the BTTS - Yes scenario a clear edge.

DC United score an average of 1.91 goals at home, while New England Revolution concede as many as 1.86 goals away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ scoring prospects. In their last five matches, DC averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while both teams generated elevated xG figures: 1.67 for the hosts and 1.55 for the visitors. At least two goals were scored in 73% of DC United’s matches and 71% of New England’s, while MLS has an average of 3.22 goals per match. The visitors have kept no clean sheets, whereas the hosts have scored in 73% of their matches, making Over 1.5 the strongest data-backed option. The Over 2.5 line also shows positive value, but a 2-0 or 1-1 result remains a realistic scenario, so the edge over Over 1.5 is more pronounced.

DC United win 73% of their matches and average 2.27 points per game, while New England Revolution have won just 14% of their games and average 0.71 points. The hosts score an average of 1.91 goals, whereas the visitors concede as many as 1.86, with New England recording a clean sheet in 0% of their away matches. DC United led at the break in 36% of their matches, while Revolution were trailing at half-time in 57%, clearly supporting the hosts’ advantage from the first half. Even when the score is level at half-time, DC have strong grounds for a turnaround after the break: they then average 1.18 goals scored and just 0.27 conceded, compared with Revolution’s respective figures of 0.57 scored and 0.86 conceded. Nevertheless, the most likely scenario remains DC United leading at half-time and maintaining their winning advantage through to the final whistle.