De Graafschap vs AZ II: match statistics

De Graafschap sit 9th, while AZ II are only 14th, and the difference is also reflected in their current starts: the hosts drew their opening match, whereas the visitors lost and failed to score. In their last five matches, De Graafschap have scored 7 goals—more than three times as many as AZ II, who have managed just 2. The home side earned 5 points during this period through 1 win and 2 draws, while AZ II have 3 points after just one victory and four defeats. De Graafschap’s defense has conceded 8 goals in five matches, but AZ II have allowed 11, which, combined with their low scoring output, clearly strengthens the case for the hosts. De Graafschap’s two consecutive draws raise the likelihood of a closely contested match, but the 7:2 advantage in goals scored points towards a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is AZ II’s very poor finishing in their last 5 matches: the team scored just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, and there was no Goal/Goal result in any of those matches. De Graafschap conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, but despite AZ II’s high xG of 2.01, they failed to convert their chances into goals, pointing to a clear finishing problem. The hosts have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring 1.4 goals per game, so their goal is likely. At the same time, AZ II have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and allowed opponents an average of 2.2 goals, which supports the scenario of a one-sided result more than a goal exchange. Although the league BTTS average stands at a high 80%, the visitors’ specific attacking form suggests that at least one team, primarily AZ II, may fail to score. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

De Graafschap averaged 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while AZ II conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game during this period, which favors at least one home goal. However, the visitors scored only 2 goals in their last five appearances, or 0.4 per match, despite averaging 2.01 xG, indicating very poor finishing. De Graafschap allowed opponents an average of 1.45 xG and conceded 1.6 goals per game, so an AZ II goal remains a realistic scenario, but it does not necessarily point to an open game. The league average is 2.9 goals, while the combination of the visitors’ low scoring output and a projected total of 2.70 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a De Graafschap win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while AZ II were trailing at that stage in 3 of 5 games. De Graafschap averaged 0.8 goals before half-time—four times as many as AZ II’s 0.2—while the visitors also had a negative half-time goal difference of -3. Across their last five matches overall, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, whereas AZ II managed just 0.4 goals scored and conceded 2.2, losing 80% of those fixtures. After the break, AZ II conceded an average of 1.4 goals and failed to score in 4 of 5 second halves, strengthening the likelihood that an evenly matched start will eventually turn in the hosts’ favor.