Netherlands - Eerste DivisieData current as of September 12, 2026

De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: match statistics

De Graafschap crest
De Graafschap
2 : 4half-time 0:1
RKC Waalwijk crest
RKC Waalwijk
155%(2.15)
X25%(3.99)
220%(2.78)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.45.77
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.18.25%

De Graafschap demonstrates a decided advantage in home matches, achieving a 50% win rate and an impressive average of 2 goals per match with high possession (57%). The hosts also stand out with a significantly higher xG (2.48 vs 1.65) and more shots on goal (8.4 vs 5.09), indicating offensive dominance. RKC Waalwijk achieves only 36% wins in away matches and shows poorer form in the last five fixtures (1.4 PPG vs 1.8 PPG for the hosts). Although the guests have a better defensive record away (1.45 goals conceded per match), De Graafschap regularly finds the net at home (90% scoring rate). The hosts' home goal difference (+4) and their edge in key offensive stats point towards a De Graafschap victory, though RKC could pose problems, justifying a moderate probability of a draw.

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De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

De Graafschap played against RKC Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (Netherlands). The game was played on January 23, 2026. Final score: 2:4.

Recent form

De Graafschap has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. RKC Waalwijk has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.

Scoring records

De Graafschap scores 1.91 goals per game and allows 1.59. RKC Waalwijk scores 1.55 and allows 1.55. Games in this league average 3.32 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 77% of De Graafschap's games and 73% of RKC Waalwijk's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 59%, compared with league averages of 62% for BTTS and 65% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

De Graafschap has the higher season xG average, 2.10 to 1.75 per game. De Graafschap takes 18.8 shots per game, while RKC Waalwijk takes 15.4.

First-half and second-half trends

De Graafschap leads at halftime in 45% of its games and scores 0.86 goals per game after halftime. RKC Waalwijk leads at halftime in 41% and scores 0.77 after halftime.

When the teams score

De Graafschap's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (10 goals). For RKC Waalwijk, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Eerste Divisie games average 3.32 goals. Both teams score in 62% of games, and 65% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

De Graafschap demonstrates a decided advantage in home matches, achieving a 50% win rate and an impressive average of 2 goals per match with high possession (57%). The hosts also stand out with a significantly higher xG (2.48 vs 1.65) and more shots on goal (8.4 vs 5.09), indicating offensive dominance. RKC Waalwijk achieves only 36% wins in away matches and shows poorer form in the last five fixtures (1.4 PPG vs 1.8 PPG for the hosts). Although the guests have a better defensive record away (1.45 goals conceded per match), De Graafschap regularly finds the net at home (90% scoring rate). The hosts' home goal difference (+4) and their edge in key offensive stats point towards a De Graafschap victory, though RKC could pose problems, justifying a moderate probability of a draw.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

0 : 1
First half
2 : 3
Second half

Game stats

70Possession (%)30
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7Shots12
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4Shots on target5
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.17xG1.3
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4Corners5
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
58Dangerous attacks26
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
9Fouls11
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1Cards3
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.68Points per gamePPG - points per game.1.36
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.91Goals scored / game1.55
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.59Goals allowed / game1.55
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.1xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.75
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
53%Average possession52%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7.18Shots on target / game5.45
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
5%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
77%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.73%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

18.82Shots per game15.41
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7.18Shots on target5.45
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
10.1%Shot conversion10%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
53%Possession52%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.1xG for1.75
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.97xG against1.36
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Shooting quality

De Graafschap: AttackingRKC Waalwijk: Attacking
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
Accuracy (shots on target)38%35%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.270.28

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

De Graafschap is 125% better for: last-5 form.

1.8 pts / game - De Graafschap · 0.8 pts / game - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap
WWLWL
Season result split
50% W18% D32% L
Season (W-D-L)
11-4-7
1.68 pts / game · goal difference +7
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
5-2-3
Last 5 at home
3-1-1
DWWWL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 2.0xG: 1.83Opponent xG: 2.00BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%
RKC Waalwijk
LLLWD
Season result split
36% W27% D36% L
Season (W-D-L)
8-6-8
1.36 pts / game · goal difference 0
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-1-3
0.80 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
4-3-4
Last 5 away
1-2-2
DDLLW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.2Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.67Opponent xG: 1.30BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

De Graafschap is 23% better for: goals scored per game.

1.91 goals / game - De Graafschap · 1.55 goals / game - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap scoring profile: very strong

De Graafschap scores in 82% of games (18 of 22 meczów), while RKC Waalwijk keeps a clean sheet in 18% (4 of 22 meczów).

RKC Waalwijk scoring profile: very strong

RKC Waalwijk scores in 86% of games (19 of 22 meczów), while De Graafschap keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 22 meczów).

42Goals scored (season)34
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
35Goals conceded (season)34
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
3.5Average goals per game3.09
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
10Goals scored (last 5)6
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
10Goals conceded (last 5)8
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
De Graafschap
5%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.1 of 22 meczów
18%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.4 of 22 meczów
RKC Waalwijk
18%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.4 of 22 meczów
14%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.3 of 22 meczów

How often they score at least...

82%1 goal86%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
68%2 goals45%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
36%3 goals14%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
5%4 goals9%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

How often they concede at least...

95%1 goal82%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
50%2 goals50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
14%3 goals18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0%4 goals5%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

77%
De Graafschap - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.17 of 22 meczów
73%
RKC Waalwijk - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.16 of 22 meczów
62%
League average

Goal patterns

36%BTTS at half-time23%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
14%BTTS in both halves0%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
36%Scored in both halves32%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

BTTS and goal count

64%Min. 3 goals and BTTS59%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
80%BTTS - last 580%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

100%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.95%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
91%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.86%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
64%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.59%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
55%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.41%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
41%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.23%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Over / Under - De Graafschap

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 100%Under 0%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 91%Under 9%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 64%Under 36%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 55%Under 45%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 41%Under 59%

Over / Under - RKC Waalwijk

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 95%Under 5%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 86%Under 14%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 59%Under 41%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 41%Under 59%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 23%Under 77%

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal before half-time86%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
55%Min. 2 goals before half-time36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
23%Min. 3 goals before half-time14%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

2nd half

91%Min. 1 goal after half-time82%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
55%Min. 2 goals after half-time50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
27%Min. 3 goals after half-time27%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

De Graafschap is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.73 pts / game - De Graafschap · 1.55 pts / game - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap - half-time state
45% leading36% draw18% trailing
RKC Waalwijk - half-time state
41% leading32% draw27% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.73Points per game (1st half)1.55
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.05Goals scored (1st half)0.77
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.59Goals conceded (1st half)0.64
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.64Average goals (1st half)1.41
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
45%Clean sheet before half-time50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
36%No goal before half-time41%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

After half-time (2nd half)

1.36Points per game (2nd half)1.09
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.86Goals scored (2nd half)0.77
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1Goals conceded (2nd half)0.91
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.86Average goals (2nd half)1.68
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
23%Clean sheet after half-time36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
45%No goal after half-time41%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap - second-half results

36% W27% D36% L
38
Half-time points
23
Half-time goals
+10
Goal difference (1st half)
30
Second-half points
-3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.73
PPG before half-time
Lead holding111%

Leads at halftime in 45% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.4

Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

RKC Waalwijk - second-half results

23% W41% D36% L
34
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
+3
Goal difference (1st half)
24
Second-half points
-3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.55
PPG before half-time
Lead holding88%

Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 36%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.

Defense after halftime+0.3

Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

De Graafschap - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.601.40
Goals scored / game1.01.0
Goals allowed / game0.61.4
Average goals per game1.62.4
1 goal80%100%
2 goals60%80%
3 goals20%40%
Clean sheet40%20%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+2-2
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 5
RKC Waalwijk - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.001.00
Goals scored / game0.40.8
Goals allowed / game0.61.0
Average goals per game1.01.8
1 goal80%80%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet40%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference-1-1
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

De Graafschap
ScoredConceded
10
6
0-15
5
4
16-30
8
3
31-45
6
9
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
9
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

RKC Waalwijk
ScoredConceded
6
3
0-15
5
5
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
10
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

3.30
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.7 : 1.6
Estimated goal split
home : away
99%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
75%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+52%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
71%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

De Graafschap

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.13
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.19
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.19
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.38
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
106%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
105%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.12
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.2
Late goals
21% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 24% come in the first quarter-hour.
21%

RKC Waalwijk

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.39
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.39
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-3.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.20
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
-0.19
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
103%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
86%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
-0.56
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
24% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 18% come in the first quarter-hour.
24%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eerste Divisie).

Teams vs league

De GraafschapLigaRKC Waalwijk
Average goals per game▲ 3.503.32▼ 3.09
Both teams scored▲ 77%62%▲ 73%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)• 64%65%▼ 59%
Clean sheets▼ 5%21%▼ 18%
Goal before half-time▲ 82%79%▲ 86%
Goal after half-time▲ 91%85%▼ 82%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.32
Average goals per game
62%
Both teams scored
65%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
21%
Clean sheets
1.80
Home goals / game
1.51
Away goals / game
+19%
Home attack advantage
+16%
Home defensive advantage
+6%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
79%
1 goal
44%
2 goals
19%
3 goals
6%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
85%
1 goal
55%
2 goals
28%
3 goals
11%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. De GraafschapYellow cardBouke Boersma
  2. RKC WaalwijkYellow cardHarrie Kuster
  3. RKC WaalwijkGoalJuan Familio-CastilloAssist: Daniël van Kaam
  4. RKC WaalwijkYellow cardTim van der Leij
  5. RKC WaalwijkGoalHarrie KusterAssist: Faissal Al Mazyani
  6. De GraafschapGoalJevon Simons
  7. RKC WaalwijkSubstitutionOn: Yorem van der VeenOff: Jesper Uneken
  8. RKC WaalwijkYellow cardLoek Postma
  9. RKC WaalwijkGoalYorem van der Veen
  10. De GraafschapSubstitutionOn: Kaya SymonsOff: Levi Schoppema
  11. RKC WaalwijkGoalNazjir HeldAssist: Juan Familio-Castillo
  12. RKC WaalwijkSubstitutionOn: Richard van der VenneOff: Daniël van Kaam
  13. RKC WaalwijkSubstitutionOn: Melle Joop WitteveenOff: Juan Familio-Castillo
  14. De GraafschapGoalBouke BoersmaAssist: Kyano Kwint

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeRob Dieperink

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Rob DieperinkMatches officiated: 11
3.18Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 245%Home wins18%Draws36%Away wins

Head-to-head

Record from De Graafschap's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against RKC Waalwijk. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.

RKC Waalwijk
1 : 4
BV De Graafschap

FAQ

What was the result of De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

The Eerste Divisie match finished De Graafschap 2:4 RKC Waalwijk. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

De Graafschap score 1.91 goals per game on average and RKC Waalwijk 1.55. The Eerste Divisie average is 3.32 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 77% of De Graafschap's matches and 73% of RKC Waalwijk's.

What form are De Graafschap and RKC Waalwijk in?

Over the last 5 games De Graafschap have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and RKC Waalwijk 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.