Netherlands - Eerste DivisieData current as of 23 July 2026

De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: match statistics

De Graafschap crest
De Graafschap
2 : 4half-time 0:1
RKC Waalwijk crest
RKC Waalwijk
155%(2.15)
X25%(3.99)
220%(2.78)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.45.77
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.18.25%

De Graafschap demonstrates a decided advantage in home matches, achieving a 50% win rate and an impressive average of 2 goals per match with high possession (57%). The hosts also stand out with a significantly higher xG (2.48 vs 1.65) and more shots on goal (8.4 vs 5.09), indicating offensive dominance. RKC Waalwijk achieves only 36% wins in away matches and shows poorer form in the last five fixtures (1.4 PPG vs 1.8 PPG for the hosts). Although the guests have a better defensive record away (1.45 goals conceded per match), De Graafschap regularly finds the net at home (90% scoring rate). The hosts' home goal difference (+4) and their edge in key offensive stats point towards a De Graafschap victory, though RKC could pose problems, justifying a moderate probability of a draw.

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De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

De Graafschap play RKC Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (Netherlands). The match date is 23 January 2026 at 20:00. Final score: 2:4.

Current form

De Graafschap: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. RKC Waalwijk: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

De Graafschap scores 1.95 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. RKC Waalwijk scores 1.87 and concedes 1.55. League average: 3.19 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: De Graafschap 71%, RKC Waalwijk 76%. Over 2.5: De Graafschap 66%, RKC Waalwijk 71%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 63%.

xG, shots and style

De Graafschap has higher xG: 2.02 vs 1.67. De Graafschap: 17.7 shots per match, RKC Waalwijk: 14.8.

Match halves

De Graafschap: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 1.05. RKC Waalwijk: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.95.

Goals by minute

De Graafschap: 76-90+ (19 goals). RKC Waalwijk: 76-90+ (18 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Eerste Divisie: 3.19 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 63%.

Head-to-head

1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.

Match description

De Graafschap demonstrates a decided advantage in home matches, achieving a 50% win rate and an impressive average of 2 goals per match with high possession (57%). The hosts also stand out with a significantly higher xG (2.48 vs 1.65) and more shots on goal (8.4 vs 5.09), indicating offensive dominance. RKC Waalwijk achieves only 36% wins in away matches and shows poorer form in the last five fixtures (1.4 PPG vs 1.8 PPG for the hosts). Although the guests have a better defensive record away (1.45 goals conceded per match), De Graafschap regularly finds the net at home (90% scoring rate). The hosts' home goal difference (+4) and their edge in key offensive stats point towards a De Graafschap victory, though RKC could pose problems, justifying a moderate probability of a draw.

Half-by-half

0 : 1
1st half
2 : 3
2nd half

Match statistics

70Possession (%)30
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7Shots12
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4Shots on target5
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.17xG1.3
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4Corners5
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
58Dangerous attacks26
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
9Fouls11
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1Cards3
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.66Points per matchPPG - points per game.1.53
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.95Goals scored / match1.87
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.53Goals conceded / match1.55
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.02xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.67
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
56%Average possession51%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7.16Shots on target / match5.37
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
16%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
71%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.76%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

17.74Shots per match14.82
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7.16Shots on target5.37
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
11%Shot conversion12.6%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
56%Possession51%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.02xG for1.67
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.74xG against1.41
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Shooting quality

De Graafschap: DominantRKC Waalwijk: Attacking
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
Accuracy (shots on target)40%36%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.270.35

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

RKC Waalwijk is 25% better for: last-5 form.

1.6 pts / match - De Graafschap · 2 pts / match - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap
DWDWL
Season result split
47% W24% R29% P
Season (W-D-L)
18-9-11
1.66 pts / match · goal difference +16
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-2-1
1.60 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
10-3-6
Last 5 at home
3-0-2
LWLWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.6Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 2.00Opponent xG: 1.47BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%
RKC Waalwijk
WDWLW
Season result split
42% W26% R32% P
Season (W-D-L)
16-10-12
1.53 pts / match · goal difference +12
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
7-6-6
Last 5 away
2-2-1
WDWDL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 3.0Goals conceded: 1.8xG: 1.74Opponent xG: 1.44BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 100%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

De Graafschap scoring profile: very strong

De Graafschap scores in 84% of matches (32 of 38 matches), while RKC Waalwijk keeps a clean sheet in 18% (7 of 38 matches).

RKC Waalwijk scoring profile: very strong

RKC Waalwijk scores in 92% of matches (35 of 38 matches), while De Graafschap keeps a clean sheet in 16% (6 of 38 matches).

74Goals scored (season)71
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
58Goals conceded (season)59
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
3.47Average goals in match3.42
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
13Goals scored (last 5)15
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7Goals conceded (last 5)9
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
De Graafschap
16%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.6 of 38 matches
16%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.6 of 38 matches
RKC Waalwijk
18%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.7 of 38 matches
8%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.3 of 38 matches

How often they score at least...

84%1 goal92%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
66%2 goals58%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
34%3 goals21%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
8%4 goals13%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

How often they concede at least...

84%1 goal82%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
45%2 goals50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
18%3 goals16%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
5%4 goals5%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

71%
De Graafschap - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.27 of 38 matches
76%
RKC Waalwijk - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.29 of 38 matches
61%
League average

Goal patterns

29%BTTS at half-time26%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
11%BTTS in both halves0%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
42%Scored in both halves34%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

BTTS and goal count

61%Min. 3 goals and BTTS66%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
5%Min. 3 goals without BTTS5%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
60%BTTS - last 580%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

97%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.97%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
87%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.92%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
66%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.71%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
53%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.47%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
37%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.26%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Over / Under — De Graafschap

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 97%Under 3%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 87%Under 13%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 66%Under 34%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 53%Under 47%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 37%Under 63%

Over / Under — RKC Waalwijk

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 97%Under 3%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 92%Under 8%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 71%Under 29%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 47%Under 53%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 26%Under 74%

1st half

79%Min. 1 goal before half-time87%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
42%Min. 2 goals before half-time42%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
18%Min. 3 goals before half-time16%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

2nd half

92%Min. 1 goal after half-time84%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
55%Min. 2 goals after half-time55%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
34%Min. 3 goals after half-time32%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

De Graafschap - half-time state
47% leading34% draw18% trailing
RKC Waalwijk - half-time state
47% leading32% draw21% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.76Points per match (1st half)1.74
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.89Goals scored (1st half)0.92
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.53Goals conceded (1st half)0.58
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.42Average goals (1st half)1.5
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
53%Clean sheet before half-time53%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
39%No goal before half-time34%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

After half-time (2nd half)

1.37Points per match (2nd half)1.21
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.05Goals scored (2nd half)0.95
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1Goals conceded (2nd half)0.97
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.05Average goals (2nd half)1.92
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
32%Clean sheet after half-time37%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
34%No goal after half-time39%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap - second-half results

37% W26% R37% P
67
Half-time points
34
Half-time goals
+14
Goal difference (1st half)
52
Second-half points
+2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.76
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.5

Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

RKC Waalwijk - second-half results

29% W34% R37% P
66
Half-time points
35
Half-time goals
+13
Goal difference (1st half)
46
Second-half points
-1
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.74
PPG before half-time
Lead holding89%

Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 42%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

De Graafschap - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match2.201.40
Goals scored / match0.81.8
Goals conceded / match0.21.2
Average goals in match1.03.0
1 goal60%100%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals20%60%
Clean sheet80%40%
No goal40%20%
Goal difference+3+3
Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4
RKC Waalwijk - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match2.001.60
Goals scored / match1.41.6
Goals conceded / match0.61.2
Average goals in match2.02.8
1 goal100%80%
2 goals60%80%
3 goals20%60%
Clean sheet60%40%
No goal20%20%
Goal difference+4+2
Half-time: 60% leading - 20% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 7

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

De Graafschap
ScoredConceded
12
10
0-15
10
5
16-30
12
5
31-45
12
12
46-60
9
10
61-75
19
16
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.

RKC Waalwijk
ScoredConceded
12
4
0-15
15
8
16-30
8
10
31-45
9
10
46-60
9
8
61-75
18
19
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

3.45
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.8 : 1.7
Estimated goal split
home : away
108%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
74%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+45%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
77%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
1%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 100 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

De Graafschap

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.28
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.14
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-7.6 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.07
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.21
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
112%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
105%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.06
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
26% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 16% come in the first quarter-hour.
26%

RKC Waalwijk

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.26
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.06
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-9.4 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.20
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.14
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
128%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
89%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.47
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.0
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 17% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eerste Divisie).

Teams vs league

De GraafschapLigaRKC Waalwijk
Average goals in match▲ 3.473.19▲ 3.42
Both teams scored▲ 71%61%▲ 76%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 66%63%▲ 71%
Clean sheets▼ 16%21%▼ 18%
Goal before half-time▲ 79%77%▲ 87%
Goal after half-time▲ 92%86%▼ 84%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.19
Average goals per match
61%
Both teams scored
63%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
21%
Clean sheets
1.74
Home goals / match
1.46
Away goals / match
+19%
Home attack advantage
+16%
Home defence advantage
+7%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
41%
2 goals
16%
3 goals
5%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
86%
1 goal
55%
2 goals
27%
3 goals
10%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Previous meeting: De Graafschap 1 - 0 - 0 RKC Waalwijk. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.

RKC Waalwijk
1 : 4
BV De Graafschap

FAQ

What was the result of De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

The Eerste Divisie match finished De Graafschap 2:4 RKC Waalwijk. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

De Graafschap score 1.95 goals per game on average and RKC Waalwijk 1.87. The Eerste Divisie average is 3.19 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 76% of RKC Waalwijk's.

What form are De Graafschap and RKC Waalwijk in?

Over the last 5 games De Graafschap have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and RKC Waalwijk 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.