Dekani vs Krka: match statistics

Dekani shows superior finishing efficiency at home: on average 1.79 goals per home match, a 20% conversion rate and only 21% of matches without a goal, whereas Krka away records 1.21 goals per match, 11% conversion and 50% of matches goalless. The visitors, however, attempt more shots and more shots on target — 11.54 shots and 4.54 on target away versus 9.14 and 3.86 for the hosts — and post a higher away xG (1.51 vs Dekani’s 1.31 at home), indicating their ability to create chances. Dekani nevertheless better limits the quality of opponent chances at home (average xG against 1.16 versus 1.71 that Krka concedes away) and have a positive home goal difference (+5 GD), while Krka are -1 GD on the road. In recent form both teams are similar in scoring (Dekani 8 goals in the last 5, Krka 9), but Krka have conceded 11 goals in that span and average only 1.2 points per game compared to Dekani’s 1.0, highlighting greater defensive instability for the visitors. Considering the hosts’ higher efficiency and superior limitation of opponent chance quality, I predict a narrow Dekani win.

The analysis favors BTTS — I project a 62% probability for BTTS - Yes and 38% for No Goal. A strong signal is recent form: both teams have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches (3/5), and the home side Dekani increased their goals scored average from 0.8 seasonally to 1.6 in the last 5, while visitors Krka rose from 1.21 to 1.8. Both defenses are vulnerable — in the last 5 matches Dekani conceded on average 1.6 goals, Krka 2.2, with xG against of 1.6 (Dekani) and 1.71 (Krka), suggesting an expected ~1.6 goals conceded per team. Additionally, Krka averages 4.54 shots on target per match versus Dekani’s 3.0 and has a higher attacking xG 1.51 vs 1.2, increasing the likelihood Krka will score; Dekani have only 20% clean sheets this season, and Krka despite a 43% seasonal clean sheet rate recently concede on average 2.2 goals. Although seasonal BTTS rates are moderate (47% Dekani, 36% Krka) and the league averages 2.83 goals per match, the weight of last-5 signals and weaker defensive metrics support a BTTS - Yes stake.

Based on xG I calculated expected goals: home 1.46 (home xG 1.20 vs xG conceded to Krka 1.71 → average 1.46), away 1.56 (away xG 1.51 vs xG conceded to Dekani 1.60 → average 1.56), total 3.02 goals. A Poisson model for mean 3.02 yields probability Over 1.5 around 80.4% (rounded 80%), Over 2.5 around 58.3% and Over 3.5 around 36.0%. Season statistics support this direction: hosts have 73% of matches Over 1.5 and 60% Over 2.5, visitors 64% Over 1.5 and 57% Over 2.5, and in the last 5 matches the away side had 80% of games Over 2.5. Additionally the away team produces more shots (11.54 vs 8.87), more shots on target (4.54 vs 3.0) and better conversion (11% vs 9%), and both teams in their last 5 matches averaged 1.6 and 1.8 goals respectively, which boosts the expected goals. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side Over) as the strongest signal; the 2.5 line also has moderate support (~58%) but offers a smaller edge.

First-half statistics favor Krka: Dekani were trailing at the break in 40% of home matches, while Krka led at the break in 36% of away games. The quality gap is also visible in averages: the hosts score 0.8 goals and concede 1.93 per match, whereas the visitors record 1.21 goals and concede 1.29, so Krka has a better record both offensively (1.21 vs 0.8) and defensively (1.29 vs 1.93). At half-time Dekani concede on average 0.93 goals compared to 0.5 conceded by Krka, and the hosts have shipped as many as 8 goals in the 16–30 minute interval, which suggests Krka may take the lead already in the First Half. Dekani have lost 53% of home matches, and in the last five games they were behind at the break in 60% of cases, so a comeback to draw after the interval seems unlikely. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario (32%), with X/2 (18%) and X/X (15%) as alternatives given Krka’s high share of away draws (50%).