Delta Putra Sidoarjo vs Persiba Balikpapan: match statistics

Delta Putra Sidoarjo is the clear favorite: they have 12 wins this season compared to Persiba’s 4, scoring 37 and conceding 32, while Persiba has 22 scored and 40 conceded. At home Delta averages 1.38 goals and has an xG of 1.85 with 6.38 shots on target, whereas Persiba away records only 0.77 goals, xG 0.96 and 3 shots on target per match. Defensively Persiba concedes 1.77 goals on the road versus Delta’s 1.23 conceded at home and has no clean sheets away (0%), and in the last 5 matches Persiba has not won any (0 wins). Additionally Persiba failed to score in 46% of away matches, while Delta failed to score in only 31% of home games, and the hosts average 1.2 points per match in the last 5 fixtures compared to Persiba’s 0.4 points. Considering the xG advantage (1.85 vs 0.96), higher shot volume and superior win record (12 vs 4), I forecast a home win.

Seasonal indicators paint an even picture: the home side have BTTS in 46% of matches, the away side in 54%, with the league average at 50%. In the last 5 matches the home team have BTTS 60% and score 1.4 goals on average while conceding 2.0, whereas the visitors have BTTS 40%, score 0.8 and also concede 2.0, which suggests an increased propensity for goals on both ends. Additionally, the away team have no clean sheets this season (0%), while the home team have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches, with seasonal average goals conceded of 1.31 (home) and 1.77 (away), all of which raises the probability that both teams will score. The home side generate more dangerous situations (9.15 shots and 3.85 on target vs 6.69 and 3.0 for the visitors) and have seasonal xG of 1.15 versus 0.96 for their opponents, so they possess realistic goal potential; for these reasons I lean towards BTTS - Yes (62%) versus 38% for No.

I project a total xG of 2.24: Delta Putra 1.36 (attack xG 1.15 vs opponent xG conceded vs Persiba 1.56, resulting in 1.36) and Persiba 0.88 (attack xG 0.96 vs conceded vs Delta 0.79, resulting in 0.88). Seasonal figures support a tendency toward at least 2 goals — the home side have 62% of matches with over 1.5 goals, the away side 85%, and the league averages 2.73 goals/match. A Poisson model with lambda=2.24 yields ~66% probability for Over 1.5 and ~39% for Over 2.5, which aligns with seasonal over2.5 percentages (54% home, 46% away) and the home form in the last 5 matches (over2.5 80%, xG 1.47). Both teams show a high rate of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: 85% home, 100% away) and BTTS 46–54%, further supporting a minimum 2-goal scenario. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (Over 66% vs Under 34%), while Over 2.5 (39%) and Over 3.5 (19%) are less convincing.

Both teams were level at half-time in 54% of their matches, so the most likely half-time score is a draw. Delta Putra has the advantage in chance creation: xG 1.15 versus Persiba’s 0.96, an average of 9.15 shots versus 6.69 and a seasonal goals average of 0.92 versus 0.77, which gives them an offensive edge after the break. Persiba have weaker defense (an average of 1.77 goals conceded and xG against 1.56) and most frequently concede after the interval — 8 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 4 for Delta, and their matches have a 92% probability of a second-half goal. In the last 5 matches Delta have won 40% of games, Persiba 0%, so given a half-time draw the more likely scenario is that the home side will turn the result around after the break. On that basis I recommend HT/FT X/1 as the strongest signal.