Dempo vs Rajasthan United: match statistics

Dempo has a clear home advantage: in home matches they average 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, have a 50% win rate, 0% losses and a positive goal difference of +6. In the last five matches Dempo scored 8 and conceded 6 (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; 1.4 pts per game), while Rajasthan United in their last 5 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with a 6-3 goal record and 2.0 pts per game. Dempo generates more high-quality chances: average xG at home is 1.7 versus 1.0 xG for the visitors on the road, they average 5.5 shots on target per game versus Rajasthan’s 1.67 and have a higher conversion rate 23% versus 14%. Defensively the hosts also look better — Dempo records 50% clean sheets at home and xG against 1.07, whereas Rajasthan away have 0% clean sheets, xG against 1.35 and concede 2.0 goals per game on average. Considering Dempo’s superiority in chance volume and efficiency (xG 1.7 and 23% conversion) and Rajasthan’s poor away record (0% away wins, 2.0 average conceded), I predict a home win.

Rajasthan United have 100% away BTTS and 0% clean sheets on the road; they average 1.0 goal away (xG 1.0), and over the last 5 matches they have xG_for 1.51 and an average of 1.2 goals, indicating they can score on the opponent. Dempo generate 1.8 xG at home, average 1.6 goals, 15.2 shots with 5.2 on target, but maintain clean sheets in 60% of home matches and concede only 0.6 goals on the season, which lowers the baseline BTTS probability. However, in the last 5 matches Dempo conceded 6 goals (1.2 per match), while Rajasthan scored 6 in their last 5 (1.2 per match) with a 14% shot conversion, which balances the scales toward goal exchange; additionally the league has a seasonal BTTS of 66%. Taking into account the visitors' 100% BTTS versus the hosts' 60% clean sheet rate and recent trends, I forecast BTTS at 66% (Yes) versus 34% (No).

xG-based model: Dempo has xG 1.80, Rajasthan 1.00, and xG against 1.15 (Dempo) and 1.35 (Rajasthan); averaging these values I expect 1.58 goals for Dempo and 1.08 for Rajasthan, totaling 2.66 goals. Season statistics confirm a scoring tendency: Dempo scores 1.6 and concedes 0.6 on average, Rajasthan scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0, and their Over 1.5 participation is 60% and 100% respectively. Dempo averages 15.2 shots (5.2 on target) versus Rajasthan 7.0 (1.67 on target), suggesting more chances for the home side despite Dempo having 60% clean sheets and Rajasthan 0%. With lambda=2.66 from a Poisson distribution the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 74%, Over 2.5 about 50%, and Over 3.5 about 28%, so the strongest signal is the 1.5 line. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5: a high expected goal total and Rajasthan’s season Over 1.5 rate (100%) create a clear edge.

Dempo is the clear favorite: they win 80% of matches versus 0% for Rajasthan United, have an average xG of 1.8 versus 1.0, and average 5.2 shots on target per match compared to 1.67 for their opponents. At half-time the hosts lead in 40% of matches and are level in 60%, with Dempo keeping 100% clean sheets at the break and averaging 0.4 goals scored before half-time. After the break Dempo often accelerates — they have scored 4 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 1 goal by the visitors in that interval — which suggests conversion of HT draws into full-time wins. From these data the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), with 1/1 as the primary alternative and less frequently X/X as a full-time draw.