Den Bosch vs Almere City: match statistics

Almere City sit 2nd in the away table, while Den Bosch are fifth in the home standings, with the key difference primarily stemming from their current form. The visitors have collected 7 points from their last five matches, winning 2 games, whereas the hosts have managed just 1 point and suffered as many as 4 defeats. Almere City scored 8 goals and conceded 6 during this period, giving them a positive goal difference of +2, while Den Bosch have a 6:14 record, equating to -8. The hosts’ defense is particularly concerning, having conceded 14 goals in their last five matches—an average of 2.8 per game. Den Bosch may benefit from home advantage, but the visitors’ significantly more consistent finishing and much better organization point towards an Almere City victory.

The signal for both teams to score is based primarily on their last five matches: Den Bosch recorded BTTS in 80% of games, while Almere City did so in 40%. During this period, the hosts conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match, with xG conceded standing at 2.16, while Almere City scored an average of 1.6 goals and created 1.67 xG. Den Bosch managed only 1.2 goals per game, although its 1.47 xG is slightly higher than the 1.34 xG conceded on average by Almere City. The visitors have shown the stronger defensive record, conceding 1.2 goals per match compared with 2.8 for the hosts, which reduces confidence in the pick but does not rule out a realistic chance of a single goal for the hosts. Therefore, the most likely scenario is BTTS - Yes, mainly due to Den Bosch’s very weak defense and both teams’ solid chance-creation metrics.

Den Bosch’s last five matches produced an average of 4.0 goals, as the team scored 6 but conceded as many as 14. Over the same period, Almere City averaged 1.6 goals per match, while Den Bosch allowed opponents an xG of 2.16, clearly strengthening the outlook for away goals. The hosts created an average of 1.47 xG, whereas Almere City allowed opponents 1.34 xG, making a goal from them a realistic scenario as well. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Den Bosch’s last five matches and in 60% of Almere’s fixtures, but given the limited sample size, the safest choice remains Over 1.5.

Den Bosch were leading at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 0.8 goals before the break and conceding just 0.4, so the scenario of the hosts holding the advantage after 45 minutes has a solid basis. At the same time, the hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 1.2 goals per game and conceding as many as 2.8. Their second-half performance is crucial: Den Bosch average only 0.4 goals after the break while allowing opponents 2.4, losing the second half in all 5 analyzed matches. Almere City score an average of 1.0 goal after half-time, concede 0.8 and have won the second half in 40% of their recent matches, clearly supporting a turnaround. The visitors also have the better current points form, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Den Bosch's 0.2, making a HT/FT outcome of Den Bosch leading at the break and Almere City winning after the final whistle the most likely scenario.