Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido: match statistics

Deportes Limache appear to be the favorites primarily due to excellent home metrics: they have won 83% of home matches, possess a +11 goal difference at home and average 2.5 goals scored versus only 0.67 conceded. Coquimbo Unido shows a better run in the last 5 matches (3 wins and an average of 2.0 points per game) and scored 9 goals in their last 5 fixtures, but they average only 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded on the road. The difference in quality of chances is evident: the hosts register on average 5.83 shots on target at home versus 4.0 shots on target for the visitors away, and Limache’s xG at home is 1.62 compared to Coquimbo’s 1.24 xG away. Although Limache have only 1 win in their last 5 matches and average 0.8 points per game, their shot efficiency (18% conversion) and 50% share of clean-sheet matches at home give them a defensive edge over the opponent (the visitors have 14% clean sheets away). Considering the home goal advantage, better conversion and greater number of clear chances, I forecast a home win (approximately 60% probability).

The “Both Teams To Score” scenario appears more likely: Coquimbo Unido has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% versus 50% for Deportes Limache, while the league BTTS sits at 47%. Clean sheets are rare for both sides — the home team has 17% clean sheets, the visitors 14%, meaning they concede at least one goal in 83% and 86% of matches respectively. In the last 5 matches Limache averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (6 scored, 9 conceded), whereas Coquimbo averaged 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded (9 scored, 3 conceded), suggesting Limache is vulnerable to conceding and the visitors can exploit that. xG and shots data show both sides create chances (seasonal xG 1.78 vs 1.24 and 16.33 shots vs 11.0, and recent xG 1.39 vs 1.52), so there is a real probability of an exchange of goals; for these reasons I pick BTTS = Yes.

Based on xG and attack/defense stats I estimate Deportes Limache at 1.54 xG (attack average 1.78 and opponents’ defense 1.29) and Coquimbo Unido at 1.23 xG (attack average 1.24 and hosts’ defense 1.22), yielding an expected 2.77 goals in the match. Season percentages show Over 1.5 occurs for hosts in 67% of matches and for away teams in 71% of matches, and hosts average 16.33 shots and 5.33 on target versus 11.0/4.0 for the visitors, therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 84%. For the 2.5 line, season shares are 50% for hosts and 57% for guests, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games over 2.5, hence Over 2.5 around 62%. The 3.5 line is weakest — Over 3.5 occurs in only 33% of hosts’ matches and 43% of guests’, and the expected 2.77 goals is well below the 3.5 threshold, so Under 3.5 is more likely (71%). In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I pick Over at the 1.5 line) due to the high season 67/71% rates and the advantage in xG and shot volume.

The home side have a strong half-time profile — they led at the break in 4 of their matches so far (67%), scoring on average 1.0 goals by half-time compared to the visitors’ 0.29 and conceding only 0.17. Over the full match the hosts have a higher xG (1.78 vs. 1.24) and average 16.33 shots and 5.33 on target versus Coquimbo’s 11.0 and 4.0, indicating an advantage in chance creation. Although the away team have won 3 of their last 5 games (60%) and were leading at half-time in 40% of those five, their half-time average (0.29) and HTPPG 1.14 are weaker than the hosts’ corresponding figures (HTPPG 2.17, half-time goal difference +5). Considering the half-time advantage (7 goals scored at HT vs. 4 for the opponents) and the higher xG and shot volume, the strongest signal is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1). Therefore 1/1 receives the highest weight, while draws and turnarounds are regarded as less likely.