Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely balanced. Deportes Tolima presents solid home form with a 67% win rate (2 victories in 3 matches) and a favorable goal difference of +2 at their own stadium. However, Atlético Nacional has better overall form in the last 5 matches (2.4 PPG vs 1.4) and an impressive record of 5 victories in 6 season matches. A key factor is the visitors' weak away form—only 50% wins away and 0% clean sheets, suggesting defensive vulnerability. xG statistics are close (1.76 vs 1.41 for the visitors), and both teams have a similar average possession (61% vs 60%). Given the hosts' advantage on their own turf and the instability of Atlético Nacional in away matches, combined with the high quality of the visitors, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a minimal victory for one of the sides.
Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Deportes Tolima played against Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The game was played on March 2, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Deportes Tolima has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Atlético Nacional has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Deportes Tolima scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 0.88. Atlético Nacional scores 2.50 and allows 0.67. Games in this league average 2.62 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Deportes Tolima's games and 50% of Atlético Nacional's. The Over 2.5 rates are 38% and 83%, compared with league averages of 60% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Atlético Nacional has the higher season xG average, 1.84 to 1.33 per game. Deportes Tolima takes 12.3 shots per game, while Atlético Nacional takes 17.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Deportes Tolima leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Atlético Nacional leads at halftime in 50% and scores 1.67 after halftime.
When the teams score
Deportes Tolima's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (2 goals). For Atlético Nacional, it is minutes 46-60 (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Categoria Primera A games average 2.62 goals. Both teams score in 60% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be extremely balanced. Deportes Tolima presents solid home form with a 67% win rate (2 victories in 3 matches) and a favorable goal difference of +2 at their own stadium. However, Atlético Nacional has better overall form in the last 5 matches (2.4 PPG vs 1.4) and an impressive record of 5 victories in 6 season matches. A key factor is the visitors' weak away form—only 50% wins away and 0% clean sheets, suggesting defensive vulnerability. xG statistics are close (1.76 vs 1.41 for the visitors), and both teams have a similar average possession (61% vs 60%). Given the hosts' advantage on their own turf and the instability of Atlético Nacional in away matches, combined with the high quality of the visitors, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a minimal victory for one of the sides.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Deportes Tolima | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Atlético Nacional is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Deportes Tolima · 2.4 pts / game - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 100% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Deportes Tolima · 2.5 goals / game - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 31% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.88 goals / game - Deportes Tolima · 0.67 goals / game - Atlético Nacional
Deportes Tolima scores in 63% of games (5 of 8 meczów), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 meczów).
Atlético Nacional scores in 83% of games (5 of 6 meczów), while Deportes Tolima keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportes Tolima
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / game - Deportes Tolima · 1.83 pts / game - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportes Tolima - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 83%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Deportes Tolima
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Deportes Tolima | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.13 | 2.62 | ▲ 3.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 60% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 54% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 25% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 67% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Deportes Tolima's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Atlético Nacional. Games average 3.50 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Deportes Tolima 1:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 0, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
Deportes Tolima score 1.25 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 2.50. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Deportes Tolima's matches and 50% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Deportes Tolima have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.