Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba: match statistics
Deportes Tolima displays impressive home form with an 80% win rate at home and a +5 goal difference, scoring an average of 1.4 goals while conceding just 0.4 per match. The hosts have won four of their last five home matches and maintain a 60% clean sheet rate. On the other hand, Jaguares de Córdoba are in crisis, having failed to win any away match this season (0% win rate) and losing 83% of their away games. The visitors have a disastrous goal difference of -12 in away matches, scoring only 0.33 goals on average while conceding 2.33 goals per match. xG analysis confirms the home side's superiority (1.55 vs 0.91), and the form over the last five matches (0.2 PPG for the visitors vs 1.6 PPG for the hosts) further strengthens the prediction of a comfortable Deportes Tolima victory.
Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Deportes Tolima played against Jaguares de Córdoba in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The game was played on March 28, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Deportes Tolima has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Jaguares de Córdoba has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 0.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Deportes Tolima scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 0.75. Jaguares de Córdoba scores 0.85 and allows 1.77. Games in this league average 2.52 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 42% of Deportes Tolima's games and 46% of Jaguares de Córdoba's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 46%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Deportes Tolima has the higher season xG average, 1.28 to 0.99 per game. Deportes Tolima takes 12.0 shots per game, while Jaguares de Córdoba takes 10.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Deportes Tolima leads at halftime in 42% of its games and scores 0.58 goals per game after halftime. Jaguares de Córdoba leads at halftime in 23% and scores 0.54 after halftime.
When the teams score
Deportes Tolima's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (4 goals). For Jaguares de Córdoba, it is minutes 16-30 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Categoria Primera A games average 2.52 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Deportes Tolima displays impressive home form with an 80% win rate at home and a +5 goal difference, scoring an average of 1.4 goals while conceding just 0.4 per match. The hosts have won four of their last five home matches and maintain a 60% clean sheet rate. On the other hand, Jaguares de Córdoba are in crisis, having failed to win any away match this season (0% win rate) and losing 83% of their away games. The visitors have a disastrous goal difference of -12 in away matches, scoring only 0.33 goals on average while conceding 2.33 goals per match. xG analysis confirms the home side's superiority (1.55 vs 0.91), and the form over the last five matches (0.2 PPG for the visitors vs 1.6 PPG for the hosts) further strengthens the prediction of a comfortable Deportes Tolima victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The key argument against BTTS is Jaguares' very poor offense: averaging 0.33 goals per match and a high 67% of matches without a goal scored (FTS). Despite an xG of 0.91, their conversion rate is extremely low (4%) and they generate few shots on target (2.33 SOT), which reduces their scoring chances. Tolima has improved its defense in the last 5 matches (0.6 goals conceded per match) and has a 29% clean sheet rate this season, making it even harder for the visitors to score. At the same time, Jaguares defends very poorly (2.33 goals conceded per match, 0% CS), so Tolima should score, but that is not enough for BTTS. Although the league has a high BTTS rate (56%), the match profile is dominated by the 'visitors no goal' risk, therefore the BTTS: NO outcome is more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A goal model based on average goals and xG indicates approximately 2.40 goals in the match (Tolima 1.53 vs Jaguares 0.87). Jaguares have very poor scoring productivity away from home (0.33 goals/match) and a high percentage of matches without scoring (FTS 67%), which limits the match's scoring ceiling. At the same time, their away defense is leaky (2.33 goals conceded/match), so the most likely scenario is a score around 2:0/2:1, rather than high overs. Seasonal data supports this thesis: Under 3.5 occurs frequently (Tolima 71%, Jaguares 83%), while Over 3.5 is rare (29% and 17%). Additionally, Tolima's form in the last 5 matches shows 0% Over 2.5 with an average of only 0.6 goals conceded, which favors score control. Therefore, the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (78%), offering the best buffer for typical goal distributions in these team profiles.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tolima holds a clear qualitative advantage: 1.43 PPG and a 43% win rate vs. Jaguares' 0.17 PPG, 0% wins, and 83% losses. The visitors have a very weak offense (0.33 goals per match, 4% shot conversion) and high defensive vulnerability (2.33 conceded per match, 0% clean sheets), reinforcing a win-to-nil scenario for the hosts. In the first half, Jaguares trailed at the break in 67% of matches and never held a lead, while Tolima keeps a clean sheet by halftime in 71% of cases, making a home HT lead most probable. Additionally, Tolima more frequently controls proceedings in recent matches (HT lead 60%), and Jaguares' form (LLLLD) suggests the negative trend will continue. Given Tolima's relatively low average first-half goals (0.43), X/1 is an alternative, but the strongest data signal points to 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Deportes Tolima | Jaguares de Córdoba | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Deportes Tolima is 700% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Deportes Tolima · 0.2 pts / game - Jaguares de Córdoba
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Deportes Tolima is 47% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Deportes Tolima · 0.85 goals / game - Jaguares de Córdoba
Deportes Tolima is 136% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.75 goals / game - Deportes Tolima · 1.77 goals / game - Jaguares de Córdoba
Deportes Tolima scores in 75% of games (9 of 12 meczów), while Jaguares de Córdoba keeps a clean sheet in 15% (2 of 13 meczów).
Jaguares de Córdoba scores in 62% of games (8 of 13 meczów), while Deportes Tolima keeps a clean sheet in 50% (6 of 12 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportes Tolima
Over / Under - Jaguares de Córdoba
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Deportes Tolima is 75% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / game - Deportes Tolima · 1 pts / game - Jaguares de Córdoba
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportes Tolima - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Jaguares de Córdoba - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 23%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Deportes Tolima
Jaguares de Córdoba
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Deportes Tolima | Liga | Jaguares de Córdoba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.00 | 2.52 | ▲ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 55% | ▼ 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 48% | ▼ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 26% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 70% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 79% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Deportes Tolima 3:1 Jaguares de Córdoba. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba?
Deportes Tolima score 1.25 goals per game on average and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.85. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.52 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Deportes Tolima's matches and 46% of Jaguares de Córdoba's.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Jaguares de Córdoba in?
Over the last 5 games Deportes Tolima have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Jaguares de Córdoba 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares de Córdoba: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.