Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe: match statistics

Deportes Tolima has a clear statistical advantage at home: they score an average of 2.00 goals per home match and concede only 0.57, with a +10 goal difference and 86% home win rate. In their last 5 matches Tolima scored 11 goals and conceded 4, averaging 2.2 points per match, while Santa Fe in their last 5 scored 6, conceded 5 and average 1.6 points per match. Offensively the hosts average 16.71 shots and 5.86 on target at home with a 12% conversion, whereas Santa Fe away averages 12.14 shots and 4.29 on target with an 8% conversion, translating into higher xG for Tolima at 1.76 versus 1.28 for the visitors. Defensively Tolima allows an average xG of 0.93 and has 43% clean sheets at home, while Santa Fe concedes 1.14 goals on average away, has an xG against of 1.45 and only 14% clean sheets. Considering superior possession (64% vs 46%), better efficiency and form (11–4 goals in 5 matches vs 6–5), I forecast a home win; I estimate probabilities at approximately 65% for Tolima, 20% for a draw and 15% for Santa Fe.

Deportes Tolima has a seasonal BTTS rate of 86% and 0% clean sheets at home, while Santa Fe has a BTTS of 71% and 14% clean sheets, which strongly indicates both teams regularly score and concede. In the last 5 matches both sides had BTTS in 80%; Tolima averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (11 goals for, 4 against), and Santa Fe averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded (6 for, 5 against), confirming offensive capability on both sides. xG also supports this scenario: Tolima has an attacking xG of 1.56 while Santa Fe concedes 1.45 xG on average; conversely Santa Fe’s attacking xG is 1.28 and Tolima concedes 0.98 xG on average, meaning both teams generate goal-scoring potential. Additionally Tolima records on average 5.71 shots on target and 14.29 shots per match versus 4.29 and 12.14 for Santa Fe, and seasonal goal averages are 1.29 vs 1.00, producing a high volume of scoring opportunities. Considering the seasonal 86% and 71%, the recent 80%, plus xG and shot data, I assess BTTS probability at 82% vs 18% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

Statistical analysis favors the Over 1.5 option: attacking xG is 1.56 for Deportes Tolima and 1.28 for Santa Fe, while defensive xG against is 0.98 (Tolima) and 1.45 (Santa Fe), projecting 1.51 goals for the home side and 1.13 for the visitors, totaling 2.64. Seasonally Tolima’s matches finished Over 1.5 in 86% of cases, Santa Fe in 71%, and both teams have a high share of matches with both teams scoring — 86% and 71% — which strengthens the Over signal. The 2.5 line is more balanced: Tolima has 57% of matches Over 2.5, Santa Fe 29%, but the projected 2.64 goals give a slight edge to Over (I estimate 52%). Over 3.5 is unlikely — seasonally only 14% for both sides, so I price Over 3.5 at 18% (Under 82%). In summary, the strongest data-driven signal is the Over 1.5 bet (I assess an 80% probability).

The home side clearly dominate first-half metrics: they score an average of 0.57 goals by the break versus Santa Fe’s 0.29 and led at the break in 43% of their matches (vs 14% for the visitors), which increases the likelihood of an HT lead for Deportes Tolima. Over the full match Tolima have a higher xG (1.56 vs 1.28) while opponents generate less xG against them (0.98 vs 1.45 for Santa Fe), and the home team averages 5.71 shots on target compared to 4.29 for the visitors, suggesting better quality chances. Additionally, in the last five matches Tolima have won 60% of games vs 40% for Santa Fe, supporting the scenario of retaining the lead and securing a second-half victory. Although both teams score frequently (86% of the home side’s matches feature both teams scoring vs 71% for the visitors), the HT balance and xG advantage make the most likely and strongest signal a home lead at half-time and a home win at full-time (1/1).